Trump.45 is at it again this morning after returning from his dystopian European disappointment of a trip. He didn’t get a Beautiful Military Parade; it rained (drizzled) on his personal parade to the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery Ceremony; Macron screwed up his Lunch Plans with buddy Vlad by switching the seating plan; and the 70 World Leaders in attendance gave him short shrift, little respect, and scant notice.
So he came back piqued and pissed. He was in a sufficient snit that on our actual Federal Holiday (Monday November 12, 2018) this year, he sat in the White House, and passed on the leadership responsibility to attend a wreath laying at Arlington National Cemetery. What an unpatriotic putz!
Trump.45 has instead resumed his bellicose fact-free assaults on the Midterm Election preliminary vote counts in Florida and Arizona, trying to salvage some bright news out of the drubbing he and the Republicans took nationwide from the House elections (Democrats have picked up at least 32 seats and lead in 4 more contests), and 36 Governor’s contests (Republicans lost at least 7 of their previous number). Hardly the nearly complete victory Trump.45 touted last Wednesday in the White House the morning after.
His departing Twit on Friday about Arizona’s Senate election where the routine process of counting all ballots led to the Democrat taking an expanding lead as all the legal votes were counted, garnered this Trump.45 salvo sent from onboard Air Force One.
From the CNBC report:
In addition to Florida, the president also tweeted about Arizona’s Senate race from aboard Air Force One on Friday, bound for Europe. “Just out — in Arizona, signatures don’t match,” Trump wrote on Twitter, without citing any evidence. “Electoral corruption – Call for a new Election? We must protect our Democracy!” he added.
We learned tonight that Republican Arizona candidate Martha McSally has officially conceded the race the Democrat.
Perhaps the President should be more careful and circumspect in throwing down challenges like this.
He’s wrong, but we can discuss the details later. The first problem with applying Trump’45’s apparently simple and Bright Line Test to Arizona (or Florida, or Georgia) is that his very own personal Trumpian signature would not pass the basic handwriting signature match test for an absentee, mail-in ballot. Oops.
Don’t take my word for it. See for yourself from this collection of publicly available Donald J Trump signatures.
Trump’s Signature Gallery
1.) June 24, 1964
Trump signed his Draft Registration. An official government document, signed under penalty of perjury.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/02/us/politics/donald-trump-draft-record.html
2.) April 15, 1996
Trump signed 1995 New Jersey Non-Resident Joint Income Tax Return. An official government document, signed under penalties of perjury.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/01/us/politics/donald-trump-taxes.html
3.) Undated 2002
Trump’s signature on Agreement with Twenty Nine Palms Band of Mission Indians Indian to operate their Casino in California.*
https://www.indianz.com/IndianGaming/2016/10/18/twentynine-palms-band-wore-don.asp
4.) September 11, 2007
Trump signed check for $100,000 to Fisher House, charitable donation from Trump Foundation
5.) October 29, 2008
Trump signed check from Trump University to himself for $500,000.
http://time.com/4101290/what-the-legal-battle-over-trump-university-reveals-about-its-founder/
6.) October 25, 2009
Trump signature from Wikipedia Commons entry
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_Trump_Signature.svg
7.) July 15, 2015
Trump signed Executive Branch Personnel Public Financial Disclosure Report (OGE Form 278e) . This is an official government document, signed under penalties of perjury.
https://www.scribd.com/doc/272297762/Donald-Trump-s-Financial-Disclosures
8.). January 31, 2016
Trump signed Facsimile Check for $100,00 charitable contribution to Siouxland Soldiers 01312016
9.) November 16, 2016
Trump’s signature from Wikipedia entry
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_J._Trump_signature.svg
10.) January 20, 2017
Trump signed Executive Order on Inauguration Day 2017. This is an official government document.
11.) May 23, 2017
Trump signed Visitation Book at Yad Vashem, Israeli Holocaust Museum
https://www.balloon-juice.com/2017/05/23/trump-signs-yad-veshems-yearbook-open-thread/2017-05-23-2/
12.) August 27, 2017
Trump signed March 1990 Playboy Cover at Phoenix Rally
http://www.fanmail.biz/mboard/viewtopic.php?t=233131
Undated Trump Autographed items
13.) Book Autograph
Trump signed “Art of the Deal” Paperback Edition
https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/327918416605860238
14.) Trump 3” x 5” Plain White Index Card
Trump signed Index Card, with Certificate of Authenticity.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/322704340055
15.) Trump Organization Business Card
Trump signed Trump Organization Business Card: Donald J. Trump, President (c. 1990s).
http://www.iconicauctions.com/lot-61472.aspx
16.) Trump Organization Business Card
Trump signed Trump Organization Business Card: Donald J. Trump, President (c. 2015-2016). With Chinese writing on reverse side .
https://www.amazon.com/AUTOGRAPHED-Presidential-Candidate-OGRANIZATION-Collectible/dp/B01MAWOP9O
Extra Credit
From Attempted Bloggerypost (February 1, 2017):
Trump signed Balls. Two different autographed baseballs. Undated, with a cautionary note about orientation.
https://attemptedbloggery.blogspot.com/2017/02/ebay-101-donald-trumps-signed-baseballs.html
Trump Basic Handwriting Comparison**
For simple comparison’s sake, let’s stick to the Trump signed items with reasonable provenance, which are handwritten on a relatively flat paper surface, weighted towards documents which have some legal and/or financial import for Trump.45, and preferentially have complete dates (at least by year).
Since Trump.45 is now President (and independently of whether he won the 2016 election, was already a merchandise hawking celebrity), we can skip the huge volume of MAGA hats, most collectibles, and 3-D objects like autographed baseballs. This may help us avoid being duped by frauds and counterfeit signatures foisted on trusting Trump.45 fans by scam artists, looking for a quick buck, and not concerned with authenticity.
After all, even in Florida, Elections Officials are unlikely to accept ballots cast on McDonald’s French Fry sleeves, or written on the back of Rally Tickets, etc., even if they appear genuine.
We have then shrunken the comparison universe here to 16 items in this signature collection. The first twelve of them are the most reliable items for Trump.45 signature matching.
This is a pretty good sample size, and well beyond anything likely available to Election Workers who take on signature matching in real time, normally with one ballot and a single scanned Voter Registration document with a signature (likely a reproduction) for comparison.
You don’t need to be a computer scientist or forensic expert to see that in this sample of genuine Trump autographed signatures the samples do not match. They do not remain stable over the years. They change. Trump.45 is no different in this regard than anybody else.
Take some time to review all the signatures as a group to convince yourself of this elemental fact.
When you are done comparing, despite the visual signature matching failure, they are still all Trump.45 signatures, and in America, we are inclined to let people vote. At least if they are White, famous, rich, or politically connected, depending on which group of folks are making the rules.
Some Actual Biology Concepts
There is nothing the least bit strange about Trump.45’s signature failure. We have examples from 1964-2017, a period of 53 years. People age, they get sick or injured, they have mood swings, they can be in a hurry, they can be on medication, they can be distracted by their kids, the paper they write on can affect the signature’s appearance, the pens they use may have different ink colors or pen nib widths, they may be using an automated signature capture device, etc., etc.
Their signatures, with their best efforts, are likely to be pretty similar, but not identical, for a reasonable period of time, but eventually they will alter and change. A stranger will not be able to recognize the inevitable subtle or not so subtle shifts in a person’s genuine signature on a one time hurried comparison basis.
This is all simple biology and physiology, and the Rules apply even in solid Republican and leaning Red electoral zones.
If you have any doubts remaining, go find something you signed in high school or college, then compare it to a job application or old driver’s license from your late 20’s, and then a medical form you signed in your 40’s. You may have a hard time reconciling your own genuine John Hancock’s over time, looking straight at them yourself today.
There is another error effect of our increasingly digital age. I recently had to renew my state Driver’s License, which is my primary photo ID document. To speed things up at the notoriously slow DMV office in person, when you finish renewing and get set to take the Beautiful head and shoulders photo to grace your new license, they have this absurd signature capture device with an attached pen on a 6”leash. Now I admit I am not quite as dexterous at near age 70 as I used to be, but I am left-handed, and the camera apparatus was in the way f getting my hand and arm down to the device. The signature space on the digital device is maybe a cramped 2” wide, and very narrow top to bottom. The stylus is thick and clunky, with a wide tip, and the machine sensitivity is rather weak (low resolution). It did ‘instantly’ transfer my signature into the ID photo-processor, but the resulting signature looks crude and blobby. It’s my signature and I barely recognize it. The digital marvel looks considerably different than my usual paper signature written with a Fine point pen. There is nothing wrong with my signature, but a meddling Elections Clerk might easily give me a hard time when I go to vote, if I weren’t such a pleasant fellow.
Sometimes a solution is really a new problem.
Beyond the legitimate ‘operator errors’ generated by inevitable human variability in handwriting, we have ‘receiver error’ attributed to those counting the votes. Those officials presuming to judge ‘exact’ signature matches are not handwriting experts or professionally trained in ergonomic comparisons. They normally do a pretty good job (if the temptation to exert political bias by discarding so-called mismatches is removed or limited), but everybody will make mistakes. The potential error rate is increased if signature matchers are tired, under intense pressure during election season, stressed out at the end of a shift, hungry, sore, on meds, etc., etc.
There are automated signature matching software programs available***, but they are expensive and introduce another set of biases and inherent errors. You don’t here talk about automated signature matching in Georgia or Florida. That would take all the fun out of a little Voting Umpire Home Cooking for the Right Side. And it’s expensive.
Doubt it? Listen to your state’s favorite team football fans talk about the unfair Referee Calls during serious Conference matchups. Alabama beat LSU straight up a couple weeks ago in Our House, but the call to Eject our Defensive Captain for the first half from a personal foul during the previous game had a major impact on the course of the game. Alabama might still have won, but we’ll never know for certain.
Sometimes the Refs give a little edge to the reigning Champs (like say the sitting Governor) in a close contest, to curry a little favor. Just human nature.
Anyway, human signature matching is inexact, subject to errors, and prone to bias unless it is strictly patrolled. How many states have independent, neutral or bipartisan Elections Commissions? Almost none. Secretary of State is a plum political job. And often a step to higher elected office, like Governor.
The 2018 spectacles of Kobach in Kansas (Secretary of State and Gubernatorial Candidate); Kemp in Georgia (Secretary of State and Gubernatorial Candidate); and Scott in Florida (Governor Appointing Secretary of State and Senatorial Candidate) are triple proof positive of Ways Not to Run a Fair and Honest Election.**** All three men have the right to run for office; they should not be allowed to participate in Election oversight at the same time. Recusal or resignation of their prior office during the campaign is called for. This is just plain partisan devolution from democratic principles.
There is also the matter of deliberate monkey wrenches thrown in to suppress and depress the vote from un-favored groups.
Here is one directly relevant example from Lee County Florida in 2018.*****
If a voter sends in a mail ballot, the county Elections Officials can disqualify that ballot on failed signature matching. The county does have to notify the voter of the disqualification and send him (or her) a Signature Cure Affidavit. All well and good; seems fair. Except that the signed Cure Affidavit must be filed by the day beforethe Election. But ‘favored’ ballets can be legally received through Election day and in some cases thereafter (Military mail-in for example). Oops.
There’s another Catch 22. The Signature Cure Affidavit can be filed with either Tier 1 or Tier 2 forms of identification. So far, so good. But if you use Tier 2 form of ID, your Affidavit signature must match the signature already on file, which was already the reason you neede3d the Affidavit. And the Election folks can toss your vote out again. This is pure Alice in Wonderland, Red Queen, Off with Their Heads stuff.
An excessively legalistic approach, not counting ballots postmarked by Election day for example, but received past the deadline caused by USPS delay for which voters are not responsible, is just plain wrong. Florida does it anyway.
Hell, even the IRS accepts properly postmarked tax returns as timely filed, even if they don’t get to the proper IRS Service Center for several more days after the deadline. Sauce for the Goose, Sauce for the Gander. Especially ironic as the voting races involved here include Federal offices.
The Oregon Example
No state in the U.S. is more expert about mail in voting than Oregon They have used exclusively mail in voting for almost 20 years. They do 100% voter signature verification, and they have about an 80% voter turnout rate, among the very highest in America. Check, check, and check. This is the way democracy should work.
From the Wikipedia entry for Oregon’s Vote by Mail program:
The U.S. state of Oregon established vote-by-mail as the standard mechanism for voting with Ballot Measure 60, a citizen’s initiative, in 1998. The measure made Oregon the first state in the United States to conduct its elections exclusively by mail. The measure passed on November 3, 1998, by a margin of 69.4% to 30.6%.
Vote-by-mail had already been implemented to a lesser degree in Oregon:
- 1981 The Oregon Legislative Assembly approves vote-by-mail for local elections, at the discretion of the county; at least one polling place in the county had to remain open on election day.
- 1987 Vote-by-mail becomes permanent, with the majority of Oregon’s counties making use of it.
- 1989 A House bill to extend vote-by-mail to include the 1990 primary elections was defeated in a 33–27, non-party-line vote.
- 1992 Governor’s Task Force on Local Government Services identifies statewide vote-by-mail as one of the most significant opportunities to save money on conducting elections.
- 1995 Oregon becomes the first state to conduct a federal primary election totally by mail.
- 1996 U.S Senator Ron Wyden is elected by mail with a 66% turnout, succeeding Bob Packwood.
- 1998 Oregonians confirm their overwhelming support for vote-by-mail by passing Measure 60.
- 2000 Oregon becomes the first state in the nation to conduct a presidential election entirely by mail. About 80% of registered voters participated.
- Measure 60 eliminated restrictions on vote-by-mail and established it as the single form of voting for elections in Oregon. It also required vote-by-mail to be used for biennial primaries and general elections as well as eliminating polling places.
Oregon officials have more valid experience in properly handling voter signature matches than anyone in the entire country. How do they handle signature mismatches? They give a voter 14 days to come cure the problem. Easy and fair. It works.******
Are you listening Florida? The only explanation for indefensibly restrictive conditions like a faulty signature mismatch law is to provide a slush fund reservoir of votes to tilt the election results. A little political pinball hip action. You know what I’m talking about.
Here’s a little voting common sense, courtesy of our Brothers and Sisters in the Pacific Northwest.*
Summary
Trump’s latest diatribe against Arizona is so much malarkey, as well as being un-democratic. Furthermore, his own signature gives the Lie to his Twit Bigger Lie. Signature Matching is not Science as practiced in Florida and Georgia in 2018. To repurpose a quote from the Great Republican George Bush 41, it is Voodoo Democracy.
American should be wary and suspicious of its application, without fair opportunity to resolve problems.
Just as another aside, what is the damn hurry to have every last vote counted before midnight on election day? It is far better to get the final count right and complete, than to get a sloppy count fast. In 2000 Florida Republicans were in no such hurry. They luxuriated in extended multiple Court battles, back and forth, up and down.
As a practical matter, none of these newly elected officials takes office until after the first of the year. 60 days away. Plenty of time to do it right. It makes you wonder what the Quick Draw Shooters are so worried about.
In Major Football Contests, we play to the absolute end of the 4thquarter, and a few times in Overtime, to determine the true winner. You can’t call the game with 2:05 left on the clock. Any fan knows that. Even Trump.45 with his failed New Jersey General s Football franchise should remember that simple fact.
America Votes. Count All the Votes
Free the Genuine So-Called Mismatched Signature Votes
*From an article about Trump.45’s failed Twenty Nine Palms Indian Casino venture in California which he ran poorly from 2002-2006. He got fired by the Indians:
Twenty-Nine Palms Band wore ‘Donald Trump, you’re fired’ shirts
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
The Twenty-Nine Palms Band of Mission Indians famously dumped Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and The Los Angeles Times offers new details about their rocky relationship.
In 2002, Trump agreed to manage the tribe’s casino for 30 percent of the revenues. The federally-approved contract even bears the real estate mogul’s signature.
“We’re going to have a beautiful love fest,” Trump said when the Trump 29 Casino opened, The Los Angeles reported.
But as Trump headed into bankruptcy in 2004 due to problems with his gaming properties in New Jersey, the tribe became increasingly concerned. At one meeting, members surprised him by wearing t-shirts that read “Donald Trump, you’re fired,” a former top casino executive told The Times.
Donald Trump’s signature appears on the final page of a gaming management contract with the Twenty-Nine Palms Band of Mission Indians. Source: National Indian Gaming Commission
The tribe ended up cutting Trump loose for $6 million. That was far less than anticipated although he did make money off the casino — $2.7 million in 2002, $3.2 million in 2003 and $7.5 million in 2004, The Palm Springs Desert Sun reported in March.
“Today, looking at it now, we are here and we are doing it ourselves. Sometimes in business things don’t work out so well,” Chairman Darrell Mike told The Desert Sun.
The tribe runs the Spotlight 29 Casino on its own and opened a second facility, the Tortoise Rock Casino, in 2014.
Outbid, outhustled, outmuscled: Trump has never been able to conquer Southern California (The Los Angeles Times 10/17)
**Although a very interesting topic, we have skipped any discussion about the potential psychological implications of signature elements. Trump.45’s current Presidential Scrawl is pregnant with them. Medical professionals have noted the physiological resemblance of the recent Trump scrawl to a cardiac EKG dysrhythmia, which Trump.45 clearly did not intend.
Here are two examples of some personality interpretations of Trump.45’s present State of Mind.
The first from Marc J. Seifer:
Per tradition, president Donald Trump signed his first executive orders shortly after being sworn in to office yesterday. Surrounded by his family and members of Congress, the world witnessed how long it takes Trump to write down the 11 letters in his first and last name.
His official signature—a jagged, loop-less scrawl reminiscent of a seismometer reading from a catastrophic earthquake—took about six to seven seconds and over 30 strokes to complete. In comparison, his predecessors including left-handed Barack Obama took a second or two to scribble their executive marks.
Handwriting expert Marc J. Seifer, who observed the ceremonial signing, noted how deliberate Trump’s penmanship was. While many of us dash off with a quick scrawl on receipts and keypads, Trump took time to form each letter in his name. “It’s a long name and he writes every letter, although most of it is up and down angles. The image of his signature is important to him and so he takes a bit of time to get it right,” observed Seifer.
In cursive penmanship, efficient connecting loops make writing faster and allow space between letterforms to increase legibility. Of course, signatures don’t have to always be legible, or particularly pretty—unless you’re appointed Secretary of the US Treasury, when your scrawl will be immortalized in banknotes. For executives, book authors, celebrities, presidents, or anyone approving a lot paperwork, the key factor is speed. The efficiency of a drawn out signature comes into question as Trump will have to sign thousands of documents by hand—a point he belabored when he presented a table stacked with documents at his Jan. 11 press conference. Gesturing to the six piles of manila folders, Trump said, “these papers are just some of the many documents that I’ve signed turning over complete and total control to my sons.”
A signature is a designed artifact about identity. One’s unique autograph can even be used as logo—the ultimate expression and validation of authorship. The logos for Disney, Oscar de la Renta and of course, John Hancock were all adapted from signatures, to name a few. Even in the age of e-signatures and biometric IDs, the handwritten scrawl is as telling as our social media profile pictures. Indeed, the second page of the fancy invitation to the inauguration ceremonies contained only two things: a quarter length photo of Trump scowling in front of the White House and his zig-zag signature below it.
Handwriting analysts or graphologists glean clues to one’s personality by looking at pen strokes. Seifer sees Trump’s strokes as a mirror of his leadership style. “I also noticed that the last letter ‘d’ is made by moving to the left instead of the right, which reflects his nature, which goes against the grain,” he notes. ”The use of all angles relates to his aggressive nature and tendency to see things black or white, one way or the other, with little room for compromise.”
Michelle Dresbold, who learned how to analyze documents from the US Secret Service, says one’s signature is a “brain print.” The teenage ritual of ”designing” our signature—testing out different swashes, strokes, and flourishes and committing them to muscle memory—is a form of self-exploration, she explains. “You put everything about yourself on the marks you put on a page.”
The next is comment from J.K. Rowling:
If you’ve never believed in handwriting analysis, maybe take a look at Donald Trump’s signature and reconsider. The US president is notorious for being concerned about his image, whether that’s comparing inauguration crowd sizes, boasting about the size of his nuclear button, or trying to undo every aspect of Obama’s legacy. How would you imagine his signature would look, then… Understated, modest and simple? Hahahaha. It’s massive and squiggly, looking kind of like it came from a medical monitoring machine.
Harry Potter author J.R. Rowling thinks she has found out why… ‘I didn’t believe in graphology until about three minutes ago,’ she tweeted after reading an analysis of large handwriting. It said: ‘On the negative side, large writing means that we are before an arrogant person, conceited, haughty, who needs to exhibit compliments and recognitions, tyrant tendencies, exhibitionist and phony personality that may become megalomaniac with lack of a critical sense. ‘The insecurity and inferiority complex and lack of self-esteem may be compensated with a large writing. ‘When the signature is larger than the text, this reflects pride, consciousness of self-value and on the negative side it shows the individual has more ambitions than real possibilities.’
JK Rowling is a believer in graphology now. Large handwriting, according to this, is anything bigger than 3mm in the middle area of the writing. Trump’s out-sized signature certainly qualifies as this, prompting the harsh conclusion: ‘More ambitions than real possibilities’. Fair?
Well, he did pretty much claim to be the Messiah… ‘Politicians have used you and stolen your votes. They have given you nothing. I will give you everything. I will give you what you’ve been looking for 50 years. I’m the only one.’ Yes, he really said that. On the positive side, large handwriting apparently also signifies ‘great skills for communication, extroversion, physical dynamism, vitality sociability and generosity.’
***Here is some information about one such Signature Matching software vendor:
Parascript provides automated signature verification software that protects against fraud and reduces costs. Since all signatures are unique, they are relied upon for verification by financial organizations, businesses and governments to authorize transactions and documents. Parascript software verifies signatures on both print documents and online using mobile devices and terminals for account applications, check processing, loan origination, vote-by-mail, legal documents and much more. Accurate signature verification is crucial since forgery and fraud can cost organizations money, time and their reputation.
Forgery Protection
Identifies and protects against all types of forgeries including random (signature does not match the name of the authorized signee); blind (correct name but incorrect writing style) and even skilled forgeries (signature closely resembles the signature on file).
Print and Online
Automated signature verification works for signatures collected from scanned documents and those captured online on pads, tablets, smartphones and terminals.
Highly Effective
Detects characteristics of a signature that are indistinguishable to the human eye for high fraud detection accuracy rates. Analyzes typical signature features such as comparison of geometric shapes, fragments, and trajectories. When used for online verification, it analyzes pressure, speed and tension. Multiple software engines work together to produce reliable verification output.
Fast, Accurate, Works 24/7
Human verification is limited by shortcomings that include level of expertise, fatigue, mood and working conditions. People can experience diminished accuracy over time, making more mistakes at the end of a day or shift than at the beginning. Automated signature verification can verify much faster, work 24/7 and produce consistent results at a much lower cost.
Cost Effective
Perform signature verification on all checks, regardless of amount, without limitations due to cost; or on any other application regardless of volume. With high accuracy rates and adjustable thresholds, only questionable signatures are routed for human verification. This enables organizations to allow more time to analyze for potential fraud or to assess more signatures for verification, while they improve the overall accuracy of the verification process.
****A Press Release from the ACLU in Georgia about Signature Matching overreach in Georgia:
OCTOBER 16, 2018
ATLANTA — The American Civil Liberties Union and ACLU of Georgia filed a lawsuit today against Secretary of State Brian Kemp and all county registrars demanding they provide due process for Georgia voters whose absentee ballots or applications are being rejected due to an alleged mismatch of signatures.
The case was filed on behalf of the Georgia Muslim Voter Project. At issue is a state law that allows election officials — who have no handwriting-analysis expertise — to reject an absentee ballot if they think there is a signature mismatch in the voter’s paperwork, without giving prior notice to the voter or an opportunity to contest that determination.
The ACLU is seeking a temporary restraining order requiring election officials to provide absentee voters the opportunity to confirm their identity or otherwise resolve the alleged discrepancy.
The lawsuit notes that a voter’s signature could vary for a “variety of reasons, both intentional and unintentional. Unintentional factors include age, physical and mental condition, disability, medication, stress, accidents, and inherent differences in a person’s neuromuscular coordination and stance. Variants are more prevalent in people who are older, disabled, or who speak English as a second language.”
Sophia Lakin, staff attorney with the ACLU’s Voting Rights Project, said:
“People should not be denied their right to vote because of penmanship, but that’s exactly what is happening in Georgia. With an election on the horizon, we should be protecting voters, not denying them the opportunity to ensure their vote is counted.”
The complaint is at: https://www.aclu.org/legal-document/georgia-muslim-voter-project-v-kemp-complaint
And the similar problems encountered in Florida:
Since moving to Florida in 2007, Paul Cauchi has voted in person in his Miami-Dade county precinct. But this year, after the county made a big push for vote-by-mail, he decided to give it a try. He labored over the lengthy ballot stuffed with amendments, then, as he recalls, carefully signed the envelope and sent it in.
But when he went on the county’s online voter information portal earlier this week to ensure that his ballot had been counted, he discovered an error message: his signature either didn’t match the version on record with the county, or he had failed to sign the envelope at all. “I felt really frustrated by it, and disappointed,” he told Mother Jones. “This is probably happening to other people.”
“I felt really frustrated by it, and disappointed.”
Florida is one of a handful of states with a signature-matching law. Such laws require that the signature on the envelope of an absentee ballot match the signature on file with county election officials. In a state with razor tight races for governor, US Senate, and many House of Representatives seats, absentee ballots rejected over signature issues could prove greater than the candidates’ margins of victory. Signature problems affect voters of all of all parties and demographics, but data shows young and minority voters, as well as registered Democrats more broadly, are more likely to have their ballots rejected. While Florida counties are required to notify and provide voters with signature problems a chance to correct them before Election Day, county procedures vary widely, and the same demographic groups are less likely to be given an opportunity to fix any error.
In Florida, each county’s three-member canvassing board decides whether a signature matches. “There’s no expert or standard,” says Daniel Smith, the head of the political science department at the University of Florida. “It’s in the eye of the beholder.”
As of Thursday morning, 15,765 absentee ballots had been rejected due to a signature issue, according to data reported by Florida counties and made available to Smith, who has long studied the issue. Of those, 12,261 have no signature and 3,504 have some other signature error, including mismatches.
15,765 absentee ballots have been rejected due to a signature issue.
Two percent of absentee ballots cast by voters ages 18-29 had problems, according to Smith’s latest 2018 data, compared to less than half a percent for voters 65 years and older. Votes sent in by African Americans accounted for just 8 percent of overall absentee ballots, but made up 17 percent of absentee ballots set aside with a signature issue. Overall, absentee ballots from registered Democrats were about about five percentage points more likely to have signature issues.
This year is not an outlier. Florida’s signature law had a disproportionate impact on young and minority voters in 2012 and 2016 as well. Earlier this year, Smith conducted an analysis of the issue in those election cycles for the Florida ACLU. In 2012, he found nearly 24,000 absentee ballots were rejected under the law. In 2016, the number rose to nearly 28,000. That year, voters under the age of 30 cast just 9.2 percent of absentee ballots, but accounted for 30.8 percent of all rejected mail ballots. Minority and younger voters were less likely to cure the problems with their ballot than older and white voters.
In recent years, federal courts have taken issue with signature matching laws around the country. Last month, a federal judge in Georgia blocked election officials from rejecting ballots with mismatched signatures without giving the voter an opportunity to fix the problem. The order came after Gwinnett County, just outside of Atlanta, posted absentee ballot rejection rates of just 2.5 percent for white voters, but nearly 15 percent for Asian Americans and 8 percent for African Americans. In August, a federal judge struck down a New Hampshire signature law; in March, a federal judge in California ruled the state must give voters a chance to correct signature errors before rejecting a ballot.
On the eve of the 2016 election, a federal court ordered Florida to give absentee voters judged to have provided a mismatched signature an opportunity to prove their identity and have their ballot counted. Federal Judge Mark Walker wrote that the state had “categorically disenfranchised thousands of voters arguably for no reason other than they have poor handwriting or their handwriting has changed over time.” In 2017, the legislature codified the requirement, giving affected voters until the day before the election to submit a signed affidavit and a copy of their ID in order to have their ballot counted. (No remedy is available for absentee ballots with signature issues that arrive on Election Day.) But the law offered no detail on how counties should notify voters with ballot signature problems, and the secretary of state has not issued any protocols. As a result, a voter’s odds of having their rejected ballot ultimately counted largely depend on what county they live in. In 2016, around 1 percent of mail-in ballots were rejected statewide, but in Miami-Dade, the state’s most populous and diverse county, the rate was nearly 2 percent.
Voters’ odds of having their rejected ballot ultimately counted largely depend on what county they live in.
When Smith was preparing his study for the ACLU, he asked supervisors in all 67 counties about the procedures they used to notify voters. The responses showed drastically varying levels of effort. In some smaller counties, election officials will attempt to find phone numbers or email addresses, or even visit homes or send Facebook messages. Other counties simply mail a notice, which may not be received before the deadline. Some counties told Smith that they viewed listing the ballot’s issue on a website as providing sufficient notification under the law. If an affected voter in those counties didn’t think or wasn’t able to check the status of their mail-in-ballot online, they would never know that it had been rejected.
This may be what happened to Cauchi, who only found out his ballot was hung up after consulting his county’s elections website. He says it’s possible he will receive a notice in the mail, but as of Thursday, he had not, and because he was traveling this week, he says a notice might not have helped clue him in in time to send an affidavit. Miami-Dade county election officials did not respond to Mother Jones requests about their notification policies.
Paul Lux, the election supervisor in Okaloosa County and president of the Florida State Association of Supervisors of Elections, described the extraordinary lengths his county goes to notify people with rejected ballots. Earlier this week, a staffer drove to the home of a voter who had failed to sign his ballot with the affidavit as well as a machine to photocopy his ID. To Lux, putting the information on a website doesn’t seem sufficient to fulfill the state’s notification requirement. “I certainly do not feel that is what the law currently calls for,” he said. “Reaching out to them, making contact, is different than just posting on your website, in my opinion.” (A spokesperson in the Florida Secretary of State’s office did not have an answer to whether such a policy would satisfy the law.)
Ironically, absentee ballot racial disparities seemed to worsen after the notification requirement went into place in October 2016. Rather than lower overall rejection rates, Smith found young and minority voters were more likely to have their ballot rejected under the new regime. White voters, however, were even less likely to have their absentee ballot rejected. The reason isn’t entirely clear, but one possibility is that minority and younger voters are concentrated in larger counties without the resources to do aggressive outreach.
After finding out that something was wrong with his ballot, Cauchi submitted an affidavit and a copy of his drivers license to Miami-Dade election officials. On Friday, the notice that his ballot had a signature error had been removed from the website. He assumes that means his vote has been counted.
What’s unclear is how many other Floridians will not even realize there is a problem with their vote, only have their ballots thrown out.
*****Selection from the Wikipedia entry for Lee County, Florida:
After Florida became a U.S. territory in 1821, a number of settlers moved into Florida, causing conflict with the local Seminole Indians. Fort Myers was built in 1850 as a military fort to fend off Seminole Indians during the Seminole Wars. The fort was named after Col. Abraham C. Myers, who was stationed in Florida for seven years and was the son-in-law of the fort’s establisher and commander. In 1858, after years of elusive battle, Chief Billy Bowlegs and his warriors were persuaded to surrender and move west, and the fort was abandoned. Billy’s Creek, which flows into the Caloosahatchee River, was named after a temporary camp where Billy Bowlegs and his men awaited ships to take them west.
In 1863, the fort was reoccupied by federal troops during the Civil War. In 1865, in the Battle of Fort Myers, the fort was attacked by a small group of Confederates. The Union’s garrison, led by Captain James Doyle, successfully held the fort and the Confederate forces retreated. After the war, the fort was again deserted. The fort was later disassembled and some of its wood was contributed towards the building of parts of downtown Fort Myers.
The defeated Confederate population got their political subdivision revenge on the Union forces who re-captured the fort during the Civil War and Fort Myers. Lee County was established in 1867, and named for defeated Southern General Robert E. Lee. Reclaimed building materials from the fort were used to help build the modern city of Fort Myers.
******Two articles from the Portland Oregon Mail Tribunepaper about Oregon’s advanced mail-in voting system operations.
The first:
Voters notified if signatures don’t match
February 01, 2018
I have never had a ballot signature challenged, but it strikes me that a layer deeper, there could be a problem. When I turned 65 and registered for Medicare, I traded my given middle name for my maiden name. I then started signing only my first initial and my last name because my whole new name fits in zero computer forms. I assume that since my ballots have never been singled out for questions, I’m signing correctly, and that the paperwork I filed when I signed up for Medicare has gotten into the record where it needs to be. If you think not, where would I check?
— Darlene, Portland
No news is generally good news when it comes to whether your signature is valid on your ballot, Darlene.
Jackson County Clerk Chris Walker said a voter will receive a notification letter if the signature on a voter registration card doesn’t match the signature on a ballot. The voter then has 14 days after an election to remedy the issue by providing a signature.
People who forget to sign their ballots also will be notified and given a chance to have their votes counted, Walker said.
It’s not clear whether the signature you provided to Medicare is being used by elections workers to verify your signature.
Walker said elections workers in Multnomah County, where you are registered, may be looking at key characteristics in the initial for your first name plus your full last name to decide whether your signature matches what they have on file.
Workers are trained to look at how people lead into a letter, how they come out of a signature, the height of letters, the connectors between letters and other writing mannerisms, she said.
Even if you are only signing the initial of your first name plus your last name, many of those mannerisms will still be visible, Walker said.
For example, you could have a distinctive way in which you write the letter “D” for your first name, and that could be a marker, she said.
A former Oregon State Police forensic signature examiner provides the training elections workers need to examine signatures, she said.
Walker said she doesn’t know the process followed by Multnomah County, where you are registered, but in Jackson County every ballot signature is examined by at least one person and up to four people.
If the first person can’t verify the signature, it goes to a second person for review. If it still can’t be verified, the signature goes to a full-time staff person who can examine the signature more closely and even pull up the voter’s history of signatures. A supervisor — the fourth person in the chain — could also take a look before a decision is made to send the voter a notification letter about a signature problem, Walker said.
The second:
Every election ballot is signature-verified
November 02, 2014
I’m curious to know what handwriting expert decides if our signatures match on our ballots. I recently injured my hand, so I know my signature does not match the one on my voter registration card. Is there a pile of rejected ballots somewhere I can dig through to see if mine is in it? What do I do about it if I find it was rejected? I want my vote to count.
— Meredith, Medford
When it comes to verifying voters’ signatures, the phrase “Good enough for government work” doesn’t apply.
According to Chris Walker, Jackson County Clerk, each ballot is verified by a signature-verification team. She explained that images of the signed ballot captured from their sorting machine are placed side-by-side on a computer screen against the signature scans on file from the voter registration card. Voters who registered through the Oregon Department of Motor Vehicles use their driver’s license signature for verification.
“In a nutshell, every ballot is signature-verified,” she said.
Thankfully, if the signatures don’t match, your vote is far from lost, and you’d be far from the first person to see a signature change between the times of voter registration to poll close.
“A lot of times we just need an updated signature from the voter to have the most current signature on file for signature verification purposes as we do understand people may be injured, have medical issues, tremor with aging, their signature has matured or another signature issue,” Walker explained in an email.
In cases like yours, Meredith, you don’t need to make a trip to the election office. Just watch your mailbox.
Walker explained that in circumstances where the signature doesn’t match, the clerk’s office will mail a letter informing the voter about the issue, and that the voter has up to 14 days after the election to sort the signature issue out. Generally, the resolution from there is having the voter sign an updated registration card. If the signature on the signed ballot matches the updated voter registration card, the ballot can be counted with everyone else’s.
A similar process occurs for voters who may have forgotten to sign their ballot. Those voters get a postcard in the mail notifying them that they need to sign their ballot envelope, and they have until 14 days after the election in order for their vote to be counted.