Using the best available daily data, here are the World’s COVID-19 Hot 10, the specific countries with the largest, most important novel coronavirus hotspot national epidemic outbreaks, as of tonight March 7, 2020.
The chart below provides the bad news numbers for the last three days, and will be updated to follow the virus pandemics’ propagation and spread.
The US, thanks to Trump’s Dithers, is now ranked number 9 hottest (worst) performing nation around the globe, and has been since Thursday. Based on the likely daily growth, tomorrow the US should surpass Japan and move to number 8 in the world.
These numbers and rankings are fluid and changing rapidly, but they give perhaps the best instant picture of what’s going on with out newest, most challenging viral nemesis and public health threat.
A critical metric is the case rate per million persons, which adjusts for the enormous effects of a population when considering the size and intensity of an outbreak from one country to another. The latest minimum US COVID-19 virus diagnosed case rate is 1.3 per million. This risk rate is roughly comparable to other potential risks an average American might be exposed to, such as injury from a fall, injury from a car wreck, chances of being hit by lightning, etc.
America’s case rate has nearly doubled in just three days, and will increase for some while, now that the unforgiveable stall out of diagnostic test capacity is being addressed, mostly by non-Federal labs. Shame on the foot-draggers in charge until now.
An early guess is that the US case rate will likely increase to at least 10 per million, based on the observed experience in several advanced European allies (such as France, Germany, and Spain).
It may well be that the actual US rate right now is already at this level, unknown since testing was throttled, which would imply that there are about 5,000 current infections here, not the 428 actually recognized so far. In the weeks to come, the actual US toll will begin to catch up to that already seen in better prepared countries.
Right now, perhaps the semi-worst-case scenario for a medically advanced country (based on European experience) would be that the US might approach the terrible toll found in Italy, at 50-100 cases per million. Based on the apparently maturing epidemic as recorded in China, the ultimate case rate might be in the range of 50 cases per million. It this turns out to be the experience in the US, we might anticipate some 17,000 cases in the next three or four months.
Day to day the US added 100 cases in the last 24 hours. The percentage increase in the US disease burden in the last 24 hours was 30%, tying us with Spain for the second fastest proportional growth among all Hot 10 countries, behind Germany, but ahead of both Italy and Iran. Not a good place to be.
These numbers are preliminary and gathered in the middle of a crisis, but they are factual, and science based. There is no spin, hiding, deflecting, denial, or fairy story telling in their genes.
Buckle up America.
Seniors should probably avoid voluntary air travel, large crowd social events, and seriously just pass on any river or sea cruises for several months, whether or not you have already made plans and booked tickets. A ticket refund, and or a trip to the hospital after an enforced, unwelcome shipboard quarantine is hardly worth the prize of a water vacation.
Latest World’s Corona Hotspots (March 7, 2020)