America needs competent, reliable, fact-based accurate information to plan how we react together to weather this new viral assault more than ever. This is the seventh in a daily series which started March 1, 2020, which we will now transition to weekly reporting, as the number of reported cases grows and epidemiologic measures such as case rates thus become more reliable and stable over time.
For basic tracking purposes, it is convenient to focus on the world’s largest outbreaks (by case numbers) in specific countries, which now sadly (but predictably) solidly includes the United States. The World’s Hot 10 is now the driver of epidemic spread.
Here are the two primary World Hot 10 data charts to follow for the seven-day period running from Sunday, March 1,2020 at 9 PM through Sunday, March 8, 2020 at 9 PM. This weekly chart format will be replicated each week as the World Covid-19 Pandemic progresses.
As of March 1, the World’s coronavirus Hot 10 included mainland China (primum inter pares), followed by South Korea, Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Japan, Spain, the United States, and Switzerland, in that order by number of diagnosed cases.
For practical purposes, we can date Trump.45’s active pubic involvement in corona related matters to the week of February 23, beginning on Monday of that week. So, Trump.45 applied his considerable bulk in public view one week before the tracking we are now following closely.
During that time the US rose to claim its debut place as Number 9 on the World’s Least Wanted List of Viral Impact. By the end of the week on Sunday, March 8, the US leapfrogged Japan to claim its new rank as World Number 8. Spain, which passed Japan earlier in the week is now the next country just ahead of the US. You may recall the President’s anodyne proclamations of Nothing to See Here, 15 cases to Zero very quickly, and Just One US Hotspot, with amusement or horror or regret, as the spirit moves you.
Still, Facts Are Stubborn Things.
Perhaps the single most useful comparative statistic in following the speed and intensity of epidemic multiplication is the diagnosed case rate per million population of each country. This measure adjusts the raw numerical totals of cases by correcting for huge differences in country populations and provides a consistent base of comparison one country to another. A sort of epidemiological apples to apples correction.
The first chart offers the day by day absolute Diagnosed Case Numbers for each country in the Hot 10. The second chart offers daily updates for each Hot 10 country of its Diagnosed Case Rate for Covid-19.
Inspection of the data in the charts shows 7 daily snapshots of the coronavirus epidemic breathing and growing and its pattern of spread. It also permits a rough estimate of the acceleration of the epidemic in various countries.
More detailed analysis can be done later, but some early hints from this first summary can be suggested. The US added 460 cases in 7 days, or 65 per day on average. But the last 2 days the US added 110 cases per day. We can then expect a minimum of at least 800 new cases here by Sunday, March 15 for St. Patrick’s Day. (You might want to rethink parade plans just for this year).
That estimated number is very likely artificially low, since the prior US testing bottleneck fiasco will echo for several weeks before it is cleaned up and doctors can catch up with delayed and deferred testing that should already have been done. This major testing screwup does not affect any of the other Hot 10 countries that we know of, so only the US numbers are likely stunted low in a systematic way right now.
By the end of the week the US case rate was 1.67 per million. That is a relatively low number for the Hot 10 group as of this date. However, the case rates for Germany (1.51) and France (2.0) were both very similar to the current US risk number as of the previous Sunday (March1). Yet by the end of the same week the case rates in Germany (12.46) and France (18.58) had both grown precipitously, and were 8 times higher than at the beginning of the week.
Since all three countries are in the rising tide (not to say explosive growth phase) of epidemic spread, if the US case rate increases 8-fold by next Sunday, the case rate would be roughly 13 per million. That would potentially translate to 4,500 US diagnosed cases compared to the 460 we knew about last week.
That’s what epidemic spread is all about. That is also why testing capacity is absolutely critical to be able to track what’s really happening. And that’s why Administration mushmouthing and testing happy talk (about 1 million tests shipped here or 4 million shipped there instead of actual number of patients tested) is so damaging and dangerous to American preparedness, and yes, even National Security. No regular American gives a hoot about test kit inventories in a lab or warehouse somewhere, they want to know about the number of actual tests performed on real patient specimens. Anything else is just bureaucratic cover up, evidenced by who keeps delivering the same palaver (Pence and Azar, repeated even at today’s health briefing).
These are early numbers and there is a certain amount of educated interpretation needed, but they are what we have. Their utility will grow with each passing week. For prediction’s sake, let’s say we might expect under current operating conditions and resource constraints, we might expect to see between 1000-5000 diagnosed Covid-19 patient in the US through Sunday, March 15.
Want to make a small wager for science-based estimation?
In the meantime, God Bless the nurses, doctors, caregivers, first responders, and public health workers who work to keep us safe under difficult natural circumstances and artificial handicaps. They, to a man and woman, earn their paychecks or volunteer, unlike a raft of so-called Leaders.
Daily Worldwide COVID-19 Case Tracking
One of the best information tools for overall tracking in near real time comes to us courtesy of Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE). A private non-governmental organization stepping up to the plate with unvarnished, unbiased data. Facts man, just the facts. An amazing job.
Their interactive website is free, information packed, and easy to access. It is more current than CDC’s website, which seems to suffer from bureaucratic atherosclerosis, if there is not also some top-down information thumb scaling going on as well, say from Czar Pence’s 26-year-old press flack. Yes, this is the same website dummy Ken the Cutch asked for public help to find recently, despite his being a card-carrying member of the Vaunted Task Force.
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
Visit early and often, and take the opportunity to observe and educate yourselves, and watch this serious situation unfold, as significant public health and medical measures are brought to bear.
Archive of Daily COVID-19 Snapshots Starting March 01, 2020
JHU Global Cases Daily Snapshots
[for earlier JHU Global Cases Daily Snapshots, see prior post “Trump’s Corona Watch Ongoing Post 06 (March 6, 2020)”]
07A Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Snapshot March 7, 2020 9 PM
08A Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Snapshot March 08, 2020 9 PM
JHU US Cases Daily Snapshots
[for earlier JHU US Cases Daily Snapshots, see prior post “Trump’s Corona Watch Ongoing Post 06 (March 6, 2020)”]
07B Coronavirus COVID-19 US Cases Snapshot March 07, 2020 9 PM
08B Coronavirus COVID-19 US Cases Snapshot March 08, 2020 9 PM
Public Health Personal Prevention Guidance for Coronavirus
- Wash Your Hands, Wash Your Hands, Wash Your Hands
- Have Hand Sanitizer (60% alcohol) at Work Desk, in Car, and Home
- Skip the Surgical Masks, They Don’t Protect You
- Cover Up, Cough and Sneeze in Your Sleeve
- Minimize Self Touching of Face, Eyes, and Mouth
- Elbow Bumps, No Hand Shaking
- If You Have a Temp, and Don’t Feel Well, Stay Home
- Reduce Casual Contact with Those Suffering Acute Respiratory Illness
- Reduce Unnecessary Long-Distance Travel
- Consult with Authorities About Potential School and Church Response Plans
- Ask at Work about Telecommuting Opportunities
- Stock Up on Chronic Prescription Meds (90 days)
- Look in on Elders and Disabled Family Members
- Don’t Panic. Take Sensible Reasonable Precautions Before You Need To.
That’s real Public Health Advice folks, advice you can take to the bank.
Stay Safe, America
