Daily Update and Progress Checker
Thank God for many interested private groups and media organizations who really are chasing this 24/7 to the lasting benefit of all Americans. Here is one thread of the comprehensive New York Times Covid-19 tracking database teased out with some analysis.
For days now, the official rap is that the major cause of the most recent crop of US cases of infection is the result of foreign travel. And so, that justifies the increasingly stringent travel restrictions put in place, now including all of Europe and the UK.
Here’s the Who Done It Category Analysis
The New York Times has compiled reports of investigations into the most likely original exposure pathway for each US case. See their website, updated several times each day, including weekends.
I have combined the Times’ specific entries into five consistent analytic categories to make summary comparisons simpler. These categories are:
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- 01 Community Transmission
- 02 Foreign Travel (All Countries)
- 03 Medical Facilities Spread
- 04 On Board Cruise Ship Origin
- 05 Not Yet Determined
Here are the first four days of results, and a rerun of yesterday’s chart to boot.
The most important take-away on Monday, March 16, 2020 is that foreign travel either to Europe, China, the Middle East or anywhere else is NOT the predominate driving factor now in the US case spread. All travel accounts for just 27% of the total of 689 cases for which an origin has been determined.
In contrast 51% of all US cases are US based community transmissions. Almost a 2:1 ratio. This only reinforces the public health imperative for everyone to Slow Down, Close It Down as much as possible for the next few weeks to try and tamp down the coming wave. Public Health mitigation efforts will be more effective and should be focused on interior US measures more than any travel ban.
Starting right now. We are already dauntingly behind.
The other flashing light from this 4-day snapshot is that a bit more than 9% of US cases are coming from patient to patient and provider spread within medical and nursing facilities already. This is very bad news for the elderly and sick, and for our stressed health care providers. It doubly amplifies the warning about temporarily halting contact nursing home and hospital visits. This is America, Folks. Break out the Face Time and Skype devices. Lend or Donate spares, and let hospital staff teach Grandpa how to digital for the next 2 months. You can love them over the ether with video.
The cruise ship contribution is dropping and should phase out if people stay away from onboard offshore vacations.
The CDC informatics show is starting to reflect the facts on the ground. Here is the attribution posted by CDC today at 3:15 PM, instead of 12 noon as scheduled. And a solid 45 minutes before the daily Corona Update show starring the usual Suspects. Travel is now considered by CDC to be in second place.
Summary: Wash, Rinse, Spin, Repeat
Travel related cases are not the major hazard or driving force in generating new US Covid-19 cases. The predominant factor is clearly community transmission. Health facility spread now accounts for 9% of all US cases. Take it to the Bank.
Why is this Man Laughing? (White Houset Press Briefing, Sunday March 15, 2020)