The statewide response from Louisiana’s Governor and Public Health apparatus is refreshingly crisp, on point, and faithful to science-based principles.
The Department of Health website is clear, informative and easy to access. The data are updated twice a day, morning and COB, and so far, they have not missed a best. Sadly, my home state has made it onto the US Covid-19 state charts with a bang going from nowhere last week to the number 9 position in the US, based on total cases reported.
That said, there was no dithering on the part of state officials here. The first positive case was announced Monday, March 9th. Wednesday the Governor declared a public health emergency, and Friday closed all schools for a month, and reinforced serious social distancing recommendations. Today further warranted group restrictions were promulgated by the Governor.
Credit is Due. If my fellow citizens take heed, the ultimate effect of the epidemic here will be significantly blunted. We are at an infection point. A veritable Chaos Tipping Point.
Data from the last three days are given below.
The major take-aways from these latest early results are two. First our test positivity rate continues to hover at 36%. These are still rather small numbers. But contrast this to the best updated nationwide data that as of March 16 there had been 4,243 US positives out of approximately 45,458 specimens tested, a positive rate just under 10%.
This vastly improved data summary is from the COVID Tracking Project, a veritable treasure of US state by state information, thanks to private sector volunteers. No thanks to the sluggard cranks at CDC Informatics, who continue to fumble the ball down the field in a particularly clownish display of top down incompetence.
Why is the positive rate in our fair state so high early on? Are we sicker than average or more susceptible than folks in other states? Doubtful in this context. There is however one rather significant environmental difference between Louisiana and the rest of the US in the last three weeks.
We are Mardi Gras, and New Orleans is Mardi Gras Central. Mardi Gras was held on Tuesday February 25 this year, two weeks before the onslaught here.
Louisiana has also joined the US National Covid-19 Century Club, a temporarily exclusive group of 10 states in the US with 100 or more reported cases of corona infection within their respective borders as of March 16. We are number 9 in that list, joining New York, Washington, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Florida, Colorado, Georgia, and imminently Illinois. From Politico reporting.
Inspection of a second graphic from the Politico story shows another interesting or alarming granular detail. While the national average positive testing rate is 10% right now after 40,000 shots, look at New Jersey and Georgia. Their positive testing rates are 71% and 100% respectively, making Louisiana’s current rate look like the veritable Garden of Eden.
While it might appear on the surface that a high test hit rate is a good thing reflecting medical acumen, from an epidemiological perspective that is exactly upside down. To get the viral pandemic under control we need to see a test positivity rate of as close to zero as possible, certainly less than 1-2%. That means that suspicious cases are instead free of disease. We are now in the maelstrom of epidemic contagion instead.
That is also why the Federal Podium blather about commercial lab test results showing 1-2% positives is so utterly misleading, bordering on public health malpractice. Almost surely an ass kissing gesture towards a prowling President looming a few feet away.
One other point of reference. Still early days, but even with small numbers (136 cases), the statewide death rate among diagnosed cases is about 2.2%, very similar to the current US national average of 1.8%. And 10-20 times higher than the season flu mortality rate. We have a very long way to go before our state rate will approach that low target number on a stable basis. But Louisiana is not suffering an exceptional death rate from complications as of today. However, as Governor Cuomo of New York so eloquently put it today, the Wave is Coming. Given our national squandered preparation window from January until late February, it is no longer really a question of whether there will be a Wave, but rather How High and How Soon.
And no Safe High Ground to retreat towards.
Hokusai, “The Great Wave Off Kanagawa”
It is what it is. Just don’t be surprised. Trump’s Rosy Billed scenarios are still more fluff than substance.
Stay Safe America.
