Louisiana’s first reported Covid-19 case was a patient in Jefferson Parish near New Orleans. He was diagnosed on March 9 and he is officially the Index case for Louisiana, so far as government and public health authorities can tell.
Our Governor has undertaken rapid and comprehensive public health measures since then to blunt the ravages expected from a viral pandemic sweeping the United States. When history is written, the first paragraph respecting US efforts to control the virus will take note of Trump.45’s stubbornly lackadaisical public health reaction for the first 90 days after he was first made aware of the initial surge in China, and the virus landing on US soil in the middle of January.
Here is the set of updated core data charts for March 18 for my home state of Louisiana starting almost literally at Epidemic Ground Zero for this state. We are 4.5 million souls. So, our state is a kind of unintended real-life experimental petri dish about what might help to blunt the epidemic curve, or prove that we acted too late to stem the tide.
There are three core tracking tables, starting from the Week of March 8, and updating daily. The first table presents Louisiana’s Cumulative Reported Cases of Covid-19 by date. The second shows the extent of Louisiana’s Covid-19 Lab tests Completed by date. And the third offers the number of Louisiana’s Covid-19 deaths by date. These three simple charts are the basic tracking values for the initial upsurge in the pandemic in Louisiana. The data are provided twice per day on the official website of Louisiana’s Department of Health. That fact alone has already distinguished Louisiana’s public health facing transparency from the bumble stumble of Federal mismanagement so far. Congratulations to the providers of the public health advice heeded by the Governor.
These primary tables can be used to follow in a simple way granular changes in Louisiana over time, day by day, and week by week as we sail into the teeth of the pandemic. They can be made by inspection or simple chart comparison.
For the time period where information is available for both, you can see how Louisiana stacks up compared to the whole country. Today Wednesday March 18 Louisiana has reported 280 cumulative cases compared to 8,017 in the United States as of 5 PM and 6 PM respectively. Louisiana has 4.65 million residents while the US population is 334.35 million.
Louisiana is 1.4% of the US by population but is experiencing 3.5% of reported Covid-19 cases in the country. So, Louisiana right now has a bit more than twice the national average statewide burden of diagnosed Covid-19 cases. This is an increase from 3.1% as of yesterday, suggesting that Louisiana’s problem is still intensifying. We still don’t know if that is because Louisiana residents are sicker, more susceptible, has an older population, had Mardi Gras at Time Zero here, has better organized testing, better public health preparedness, etc. We don’t know why yet, but we will sure be getting some better answers soon.
The easiest way to adjust these figures to a more informative metric is to present case rates per a standard population unit (for example cases per 1,000,000 population).Once a reasonable number of cases is achieved, say 100, comparison among different groups should favor population adjusted measures for risk review.
These core charts can easily be adopted to a case per million reporting structure, as seen above.
The diagnosed rate of infection in Louisiana is 60.3 per million as of Today. A week ago it was 1.3 per million. On Saturday it was 16.6 per million. The observed risk has more than doubled in the last two days since the Governor took strong action. The likely answer is that the testing drought has been partially relieved.
Our positive test rate is 40% as of today, actually increased from around 36% seen the few days. This is very unwelcome news, but hardly surprising. It is entirely consistent with the explanation that there is a toxic reservoir of positive cases undiagnosed due to artificial testing strictures and unavailability. The Federal Management of the Covid-19 has been a terrible failure, and we are all paying the price. We will continue to do so for some time in unreckoned viral spread and increased illness and death in Louisiana.
Remember that the cases seen today are the result of exposure and infection 1-2 weeks ago (incubation time to overt symptoms averages 5 up to 12 days delay). And we are just beginning to get out from under the massive chokedown on testing, such that the Louisiana positive test rate is still above 30%, indicating a large reservoir of undiscovered infections circulating among us.
The cases we diagnose today are the fixed result of exposures mainly suffered from March 4 to March 11. The disease burden is like a slow-motion car wreck. You know it’s coming, but you can’t stop it. The measures we instituted largely beginning March 10 and more strongly Monday March 16 will only play out starting next week and the week after. A dreary anticipation, if fingers crossed hope still beckons. Like an enormous oil tanker at speed you can’t alter direction immediately port or starboard. At sea for the largest ships, it may take 5 miles or more of travel to change direction or stop. That disheartening delay at the state level is only worse at the Federal level, since that ship is so much larger.
Tables versus Graphs
The good folks over at NOLA.com are producing a wonderful set of graphics for the public to help track the invasion and propagation of Covid-19 within our state. They compliment visually the Tables in the Louisiana Core Covid-19 tracking system presented here.
One technical note of interest in the graphical representation. There is an apparent hump and fall back in daily new cases in Louisiana around March 14. That is precisely where you would expect a bump from a mass exposure interaction like Mardi Gras. As so it was. Notice that the daily new case rate returned to the prior smoothly upward sloping curve soon after. Not proof, but damn suspicious to a trained eye.
Louisiana Parishes Afflicted with COVID-19-19 Illness as of March 18, 2020
Mass gatherings are so dangerous in this Time of the Virus. God’s favored children have no special heavenly immunity from infection in this matter, no matter who claims the contrary. Pastors in the Baton Rouge area might want to take note and render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s before the Virus makes an in-person sanctuary call for the naïve faithful. The social isolation programs in place are not to inhibit religious practice, they are imposed to save the lives of the very believers who want to worship next month and next year. Pay attention.
That’s Not A Hump; It’s A Rocket Ship. Results of Actions from 1-2 Weeks Ago
Protect Yourself.
Be Responsible for the Sake of Those You Love and Others Too
Mitigate, Social Distance, and Shelter For 8 Weeks At Least
