Louisiana’s first reported Covid-19 case was a patient in Jefferson Parish near New Orleans. He was diagnosed on March 9 and he is officially the Index case for Louisiana, so far as government and public health authorities can tell.
Our Governor has undertaken rapid and comprehensive public health measures since then to blunt the ravages expected from a viral pandemic sweeping the United States. When history is written, the first paragraph respecting US efforts to control the virus will take note of Trump.45’s stubbornly lackadaisical public health reaction for the first 90 days after he was first made aware of the initial surge in China, and the virus landing on US soil in the middle of January.
Here is the set of updated core data charts for March 19 for my home state of Louisiana starting almost literally at Epidemic Ground Zero for this state. We are 4.5 million souls. So, our state is a kind of unintended real-life experimental petri dish about what might help to blunt the epidemic curve, or prove that we acted too late to stem the tide.
There are three core tracking tables, starting from the Week of March 8, and updating daily. The first table presents Louisiana’s Cumulative Reported Cases of Covid-19 by date. The second shows the extent of Louisiana’s Covid-19 Lab tests Completed by date. And the third offers the number of Louisiana’s Covid-19 deaths by date. These three simple charts are the basic tracking values for the initial upsurge in the pandemic in Louisiana. The data are provided twice per day on the official website of Louisiana’s Department of Health. That fact alone has already distinguished Louisiana’s public health facing transparency from the bumble stumble of Federal mismanagement so far. Congratulations to the providers of the public health advice heeded by the Governor.
These primary tables can be used to follow in a simple way granular changes in Louisiana over time, day by day, and week by week as we sail into the teeth of the pandemic. They can be made by inspection or simple chart comparison.
For the time period where information is available for both, you can see how Louisiana stacks up compared to the whole country. Today Thursday March 19 Louisiana has reported 392 cumulative cases compared to 13,159 in the United States as of 5 PM and 5 PM respectively. Louisiana has 4.65 million residents while the US population is 334.35 million.
Louisiana is 1.4% of the US by population but is experiencing 2.98% of reported Covid-19 cases in the country. So, Louisiana right now has a bit more than twice the national average statewide burden of diagnosed Covid-19 cases. This is a decrease from 3.5% as of yesterday.
The easiest way to adjust these figures to a more informative metric is to present case rates per a standard population unit (for example cases per 1,000,000 population).Once a reasonable number of cases is achieved, say 100, comparison among different groups should favor population adjusted measures for risk review.
These core charts can easily be adopted to a case per million reporting structure, as seen below.
The diagnosed rate of infection in Louisiana is 84.4 per million as of Today. A week ago it was 2.8 per million. On Saturday it was 16.6 per million. The observed risk has nearly quadrupled in the last four days since the Governor took strong action. Part of the explanation is that the testing drought has been partially relieved.
Our positive test rate is 46% as of today, actually a substantial increase from around 36% seen the few days. This is very unwelcome news indeed. It is entirely consistent with the explanation that there is a toxic reservoir of positive cases undiagnosed due to artificial testing strictures and unavailability. The Federal Management of the Covid-19 has been a terrible failure, and we are all paying the price. We will continue to do so for some time in unreckoned viral spread and increased illness and death in Louisiana. The epidemic will not subside until the expanded testing program generates numbers well below a 10% positive rate, a very long way to go. The latest nationwide US positive testing rate is still almost 12% after a major increase in total tests to more than 100,000, a rate little changed in the last two weeks. This is a gut punch to the Happy Talk broadcast from the Daily Corona Briefing about the good news from testing. The nationwide positive rate is stubbornly high, and gives lie to the dishonestly repeated notion that Washington was prepared and the all the necessary tests have been available when needed. Rubbish.
Remember that the cases seen today are the result of exposure and infection 1-2 weeks ago (incubation time to overt symptoms averages 5 up to 12 days delay). And we are just beginning to get out from under the massive chokedown on testing, such that the Louisiana positive test rate is still above 30%, indicating a large reservoir of undiscovered infections circulating among us.
The cases we diagnose today are the fixed result of exposures mainly suffered from March 4 to March 11. The disease burden is like a slow-motion car wreck. You know it’s coming, but you can’t stop it. The measures we instituted largely beginning March 10 and more strongly Monday March 16 will only play out starting next week and the week after. A dreary anticipation, if fingers crossed hope still beckons. Like an enormous oil tanker at speed you can’t alter direction immediately port or starboard. At sea for the largest ships, it may take 5 miles or more of travel to change direction or stop. That disheartening delay at the state level is only worse at the Federal level, since that ship is so much larger.
We can also contrast Louisiana’s rising case rate per million population with comparable figures for the US nationwide and the most affected countries elsewhere. The results here are very concerning. Based on data from the New York Times Covid-19 Tracking database from yesterday March 18, our Louisiana case rate today is close to that of Germany, and three times higher than the reported World average. These rates are constantly evolving, due to disease spread, increased testing availability and, to some smaller degree, reporting artifacts. But they indicate the coronavirus disease burden is growing very rapidly in the United Sates, including here in Louisiana, and our state is rapidly approaching parity with much of Europe, although Italy is still in a more precarious position.
Tables versus Graphs
The good folks over at NOLA.com are producing a wonderful set of graphics for the public to help track the invasion and propagation of Covid-19 within our state. They complement visually the Tables in the Louisiana Core Covid-19 tracking system presented here. Sadly, the reported case rate in Louisiana may catch up to France and South Korea in the next couple of days.
Protect Yourself.
Be Responsible for the Sake of Those You Love and Others Too
The Menace of Covid-19 Seeps Across Louisiana (26 Parishes March 19, 2020)
Mitigate, Social Distance, and Shelter For 8 Weeks At Least
