Thank God for many interested private groups and media organizations who really are chasing this 24/7 to the lasting benefit of all Americans. Here is one thread of the comprehensive New York Times Covid-19 tracking database teased out with some analysis.
For days now, the official rap is that the major cause of the most recent crop of US cases of infection is the result of foreign travel. And so, that justifies the increasingly stringent travel restrictions put in place, now including all of Europe and the UK. State Department Mike was at it again today protecting America from Mexican hoards crashing the border with Chinese contraband buggies.
Here’s the Who Done It Category Analysis
The New York Times has compiled reports of investigations into the most likely original exposure pathway for each US case. See their website, updated several times each day, including weekends.
I have combined the Times’ specific entries into five consistent analytic categories to make summary comparisons simpler. These categories are
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- 01 Community Transmission
- 02 Foreign Travel (All Countries)
- 03 Medical Facilities Spread
- 04 On Board Cruise Ship Origin
- 05 Not Yet Determined
Here is a week’s worth of results, and a rerun of the March 16 chart for spice.
The most important take-away on Friday, March 20, 2020 is that foreign travel either to Europe, China, the Middle East or anywhere else is NOT the predominate driving factor in the US case spread. All travel accounts for less than 25% of the total of 884 cases for which an origin has been determined.
In contrast 48% of all US cases are US based community transmissions. This only reinforces the public health imperative for everyone to Stay At Home, Close It Down as much as possible for the next 8 weeks at least to try and hold back the coming wave.
The continuing flashing light from this 7-day snapshot is that a bit more than 17% of US cases are coming from patient to patient and provider spread within medical, nursing and long-care facilities already. This is very bad news for the elderly and sick, and for our stressed health care providers. This is America, Folks. Break out the Face Time and Skype devices. Lend or Donate spares, and let hospital staff teach Grandpa how to digital for the next 2 months. You can love them over the ether with video.
The cruise ship contribution continues its decline and should phase out if people stay away from onboard offshore vacations. Cruise ships for the near future would be essentially floating viral petri dishes ripe for propagation and explosive growth among any naïve biological units paying for the privilege of risking illness on their water getaway. Harsh, but true.
The CDC informatics show remains halting and falls further and further behind the best current information. Here is the attribution posted by CDC at noon March 20. Today’s CDC tidbit would have you believe the travel related portion of US case origin is now 51%, instead of the most accurate estimate of less than 25%. A 50% proportional miss in attribution. That is falling off the boat and missing the water territory. So, CDC as of today is not just tardy; it is peddling dangerous misinformation.
Wonder if the Corona Czar’s Press Office vetted this little gem. It does accord nicely with the President’s healthy gut, as interpreted by Stephen Miller et. al. Nice going, boys and girls.
Summary: Wash, Rinse, Spin, Repeat
Travel related cases now amount to less than ¼ of US cases by origin. Community transmission accounts for 50%. Health facility spread now accounts for 17% of all US cases, and growing in importance. Lack of PPE anyone? Take it to the Bank.
Thanks again to the New York Times Covid-19 Database staff for their tireless efforts to inform the Public and help us protect our nation’s health.
Stay Safer America
Stay At Home Protect Your Neighbors
8-Week Plan
