Our State’s Governor, John Bel Edwards, has been among the most aggressive of all 50 state leaders in issuing COVID-19 pandemic control orders since the first case was reported here on March 9, 2020. He declared a Public Health Emergency within two days (March 11), limited visitation to licensed health facilities (March 12), halted all social gatherings of 250 or more (March 13), closed all state public schools (March 16), issued guidelines for dental practices (March 17), elective surgical procedures (March 18), issued an Emergency Closure order for tattoo parlors (March 22), and finally a Statewide Stay at Home order (March 22).
It would be hard to find a more comprehensive set of public health control measures implemented so quickly in any other state in our country. As such, we may be the best candidate for measuring the success of strict mitigation measures to blunt and slow the spread of the COVID-19 in a diverse American state social system and economy. Louisiana has dense urban and sparsely populated rural areas, concentrated industrial activity, significant agricultural and forest production, a large and varied tourist sector, large and small business sectors, major academic centers. We have an international airport, major seafaring ports, heavy rail and truck transportation facilities. In short, just about all the potential risk factors for control or spread of the COVID-19 virus.
Since the first case was diagnosed here, we have developed one of the nation’s Hotspots originally centered in New Orleans. As we have described elsewhere it did not help our state risk profile that Mardi Gras, a major international party and parade event was celebrated here on Tuesday February 25, when no real precautions were in place to practice social distancing. To the absolute contrary, in fact.
Nonetheless when the first case here was recognized the Governor and State DOH reacted with great alacrity and organization as the timeline demonstrates. In fact, a number of critics have complained that the Governor was simply overdoing it and being an exaggerated wuss for stepping on the social activities of our fellow Louisianans, particularly after The Big Chief in Washington had been declaring the whole thing a “Hoax.”
The Governor persisted anyway. His actions were not partisan or political. They were science based, implemented by a state chief executive who demonstrated his West Point and Army Infantry Commander training, discipline and leadership.
Timeline of Louisiana’s Control Measures (March 9- March 24, 2020)
March 09, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health has reported Louisiana’s first presumptive positive case of COVID-19, commonly referred to as coronavirus, a Jefferson Parish resident who is hospitalized in Orleans Parish, Gov. John Bel Edwards announced Monday. At this time, there is only one known case of the illness in the state.
March 11, 2020
- Following a meeting of the Unified Command Group today, Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a Public Health emergency in Louisiana related to COVID-19.
March 12, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health, Office of Public Health (LDH/OPH), pursuant to the emergency rulemaking authority granted by R.S. 40:4(A)(13), hereby adopts the following Emergency Rule for the protection of public health. This Emergency Rule is promulgated specifically in accordance with R.S. 49:953(B) of the Administrative Procedure Act (R.S. 49:950, et seq .). The LDH/OPH expressly finds that an imminent peril to the public health, safety, or welfare requires adoption of this rule on an emergency basis.
March 12, 2020
- Louisiana’s statewide 211 network is now answering calls about COVID-19, also known as the coronavirus. This network is best designed and staffed to handle the large volume of calls from Louisiana residents who are concerned and who have questions about the rapidly spreading virus.
March 12, 2020
- Effective today, the Louisiana Department of Health is requiring all licensed healthcare facilities in the state to restrict visitors to those deemed essential, vital or necessary to the care and well-being of patients, clients and residents. This action is being taken to limit the spread of COVID-19, commonly referred to as coronavirus, among the populations most vulnerable to the virus.
March 13, 2020
- Gov. John Bel Edwards today signed a proclamation that among other actions immediately halts any gathering of more than 250 people until Monday, April 13, closes all K-12 public schools statewide effective Monday, March 16 resuming Monday, April 13, as Louisiana seeks to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the state.
March 13, 2020
- All patients suspected (and undergoing testing) for COVID-19 should isolate at home until they receive their test results. If test results are positive, patients should be isolated at home until cleared by a physician or public health official.
March 14, 2020
- The State of Louisiana reports first death related to COVID-19. The Orleans Parish resident was a 58-year-old individual with underlying health conditions. The patient was being treated at Touro Infirmary Hospital and Medical Center.
March 15, 2020
- The State of Louisiana reports a second death related to COVID-19. The Orleans Parish resident was a 53-year-old individual with underlying medical conditions. The patient was being treated at Touro Infirmary in New Orleans.
March 15, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health has launched a new interactive dashboard for tracking COVID-19 testing results in Louisiana. This new dashboard includes a heat map of the state along with a breakdown of positive cases by parish.
March 17, 2020
- The Orleans Parish resident was an 80-year-old individual who lived at Lambeth House in New Orleans. A third death was reported on Monday. This was an 84-year-old individual who also lived at Lambeth House.
March 17, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health has issued guidance for dental practices.
March 18, 2020
- The State of Louisiana reports a fifth death related to COVID-19. The Orleans Parish resident was a 98-year-old individual who lived at Lambeth House in New Orleans. A fourth death was reported on Tuesday. This was an 80-year-old individual who also lived at Lambeth House.
March 18, 2020
- The Orleans Parish resident was a 92-year-old individual who lived at Lambeth House in New Orleans. A fifth death was reported earlier on Tuesday. This was a 98-year-old individual who also lived at Lambeth House.
March 18, 2020
- The Keep Calm Through COVID crisis phone line provides trained, compassionate counselors to support Louisianans through this difficult time. This hotline is for counseling only, and people calling for general information should call 211.
March 18, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health reports a seventh death related to COVID-19. The 72-year-old individual was a Jefferson Parish resident. There is no known connection to the Lambeth House.
March 18, 2020
- The Department of Health has issued guidance on elective procedures.
March 19, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health reports an eighth death related to COVID-19. The 60-year-old individual was a St. James Parish resident.
March 19, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health has confirmed two additional deaths related to COVID-19, bringing the total to 10.
March 20, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health confirms the COVID-19 related death of an out-of-state resident from Mississippi at a facility in St. Tammany Parish. Mississippi officials are aware.
March 20, 2020
- The deaths of a 38-year-old Catahoula Parish resident, a 77-year-old Jefferson Parish resident, a 72-year-old Orleans Parish resident and a 49-year-old Orleans Parish resident were reported today. All had underlying medical conditions.
March 20, 2020
- Whether it’s good old soap and water or the standby hand sanitizer, the power to help keep coronavirus at bay is literally in your hands.
March 21, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health on Saturday confirmed two additional deaths related to COVID-19, bringing the total to 16.
March 21, 2020
- Today, Gov. John Bel Edwards sent a letter and video message to healthcare workers across the state thanking them for their tireless and dedicated work in helping Louisianans through the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, Gov. Edwards released a new PSA intensifying his message about the need for everyone to do their part in slowing the spread of coronavirus and heeding all of the precautions to stay safe and healthy.
March 21, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health on Saturday evening confirmed four additional deaths related to COVID-19, bringing the total to 20.
March 22, 2020
- Emergency Order: Tattoo/Body Art Closures COVID-19
March 22, 2020
- Gov. Edwards Issues Statewide Stay at Home Order to Further Fight the Spread of COVID-19 in Louisiana
March 22, 2020
- Following the model of the CDC, the Louisiana Department of Health will move to once-daily reporting on the number of positive COVID-19 cases and deaths.
March 23, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health has updated its website to reflect the latest number of positives and will continue to update its website at noon each day.
March 24, 2020
- The Louisiana Department of Health has updated its website to reflect the latest number of positives and will continue to update its website at noon each day.
What is the Early Interim Evidence?
The pressing question all of us have is does strict social mitigation work to a significant degree in freedom loving and acting America when applied vigorously early in the course of infectious spread? We have daily data here from March 9 onward.
Based on the best evidence so far from other affected countries like China and South Korea, given the likely minimum 1-week incubation period for COVID-19 infection, bending of the rising curve of epidemic spread would not be visible for at least 7-10 days later, the lag time. Louisiana has placed substantial controls in place ratcheting them tighter beginning on Wednesday March 11, but really in full-bore mode since Monday March 16. Thus, the earliest expected dipping of the daily new cases toll would be delayed until at least March 24.
We all hope that deliberate control measures are effective and reduce the health burden of illness and death we have paid for dearly by difficult social restrictions to our family and economic life. We pray for good news. We may read too much into early signs.
Yet for the first time, today’s figures offer a glimmer of light. It is weak, just a glimmer, but today’s new cases number is not drearier than yesterday’s total.
Here is the charted evidence.
The results would be more comforting if there hadn’t been a CDC recommended and approved data reporting change from March 22 forward. Previously data was reported twice per day at 9 AM and then again at 5 PM. Starting March 23 the state data are reported only once per day at 12 PM. Thus, the actual reported numbers for March 22 ( 9 AM only) and March 23 (12 PM) are a combination with a final time change to 12 PM from previous 5 PM. However, the data for March 24 are again a full 24-hour period from March 23 at noon until March 24 at noon, so the 24-hour reporting cycle is restored as of today.
I have shown the graphs for original data, and a second smoothed version where the totals for March 22 and March 23 were added and averaged for each day.
This shows that the epidemic curve which was on a typical upward parabolic slope until March 21 (226 cases) appears now to be flattening somewhat as of March 24 reporting period (216 cases).
This is too early to celebrate, but in colloquial terms “it doesn’t suck either”. The rest of this week will help tell the tale.
The fact that this glimmer of a dip is coming just when the first effect of control measures might reasonably be seen if they were implemented vigorously supports the notion this decline in the number of new cases is not just random or an artifact. Not proof, but suggestive.
If this earliest trend persists it would be a powerful confirmation and vindication of the Governor’s strategy of early strict public health control. It would provide something of a break for our acute health care system in Louisiana, which is already being strained by the increasing number of total infections requiring hospitalization. Bending of the curve only means that the situation would not be getting exponentially worse each day.
Even if true, we still have a major problem to deal with for the next several weeks just from the burden of cases we already have and the roughly 200 more added each day. But that is a better problem for us to deal with than having 250, then 300, then 400 new cases every day as they are seeing elsewhere.
Let us follow the facts but pray that our Louisiana Curve is indeed bending flatter, thanks to decisive public health policies and intelligent political leadership for all our state’s residents.
We might just provide a light for other states which don’t have a plan and are waiting around to get whacked by COVID-19.
Stay At Home Protect Your Family Stay The Course
Be Good To Your Neighbors (From A Distance)
