Here in the Southeast we are used to a variety of hard fought intersectional contests, usually athletic in nature. Native and transplants alike are justly proud of our outstanding college and prep sports teams. We believe with some justification that the SEC (our athletic pride and joy) is the Best in the Nation.
As for football, after a Louisiana regretted recent series of football successes by Alabama, our 2019 LSU Tigers just won the College Superbowl of All Seasons in January. Perfect, Perfect, Perfect (15-0). It doesn’t get any better than this, and it was just 90 days ago. A veritable lifetime in spirit and outlook.
That said, Florida is certainly a constant and steady competitor year after year for Louisiana in SEC challenges.
The COVID-19 Pandemic is here and on the field.
Right now, we have an unpleasant contest of a different sort with our close southern neighbor and rival. Both are Red voting states, but Louisiana has a sitting Democratic Governor leading the Coronavirus response. Florida is also the newly proclaimed (as of 2020) home base and bastion of the current White House incumbent, one Donald J Trump. Florida’s governor DeSantis is a close ally and Kool Aid drinker of the first magnitude, sensitive to the internal storms roiling the President.
Florida (21.99 million) is larger in population than Louisiana (4.65 million) by almost 5 times (4.72 x). Raw State to state comparisons of the differential experiences in Florida and Louisiana need to take account of this significant factor.
Both states are sun filled, with folks who like to party on land and water, they generally have a socially conservative bent, large populations of multi-ethnic minorities, strong industrial, agricultural, and tourist economic sectors, and a high percentage of fervent gun owners, religious fundamentalists, and government sceptics.
So, we have another unintended policy experiment in two southern states, with different executive leadership, to partially gauge how politics intrudes and modifies public health outcomes. Sadly, the winner of this particular race to the top may pay an enlarged blood price, but the conditions have already been set and the clock is running. There is no voluntary withdrawal.
We have commented before on the extraordinary explosion of public interest real-time data sources for tracking this pandemic. I would say it is unprecedented in the past 40 years I have been working and observing in public health matters. We don’t have definitive answers; they will only come months and years from now, but there is a hugely bright spotlight on the very earliest beginning of this health tragedy as it unfolds and engulfs us all, from acute care medical system, to our jobs and the economy, to social distress and community cohesion, to our governments fractured and often uncoordinated responses.
Here is a three-day visual comparison from March 31, April 1, and April 2.
Louisiana starts out with an unfortunately large head start, partly thanks to our initial Mardi Gras surge, at a time when no national authorities sounded any warnings about large raucous gatherings, and before a single case was found here. Contrast that to Florida’s recent Spring Break beach and party celebrations, undertaken after COVID-19 cases were found in Florida, other states were already imposing social restrictions, and their Governor staunchly refused to take any statewide executive action for fear of damping down an economic boon for many years past.
Louisiana’s cases rose from 5,250 to 6,400 to 9,150 during this short stretch; deaths from 239 to 310. Hospitalized patients rose more slowly from 1,350 to 1,500 to 1,650. Strikingly, total COVID-19 tests went from 38,500 to 45,800 to 51,100.
What about Florida’s metrics in the same time period?
Florida’s cases rose from 6,750 to 7,775 to 9,000 during this short stretch; deaths from 85 to 144. Hospitalized patients also rose more gently from 850 to 1,000 to 1,150. Total COVID-19 tests went from 64,650 to 69,250 to 80.350.
Raw number comparisons suggest Florida is behind in the carnage race, and in somewhat better shape, especially if you take account of its larger population size. Louisiana seems to be ahead in a Bad Way after the first Quarter.
Appearances can be deceiving.
For in this malign contest, both teams are not running on the same clock. The Peak of Disaster when the full fury of the pandemic hits each state is staggered. Louisiana is father along its own curve. Based on the current best epidemic models, the peak is expected in Louisiana only 7 days from now on April 9. The expected death toll by August 4 is 1,800.
For Florida, the worst is farther off (32 days), not expected until May 3, with ever rising tides every day until then. The expected death toll by August 4 is 7,000.
One other item of particular note. These models are data driven, no Presidential hunches are programmed or accepted. And a major critical component is testing, testing, testing. Here again, on the surface Florida would seem to have a good edge, as they have out tested the Bayou state 80,000 to 50.000 as of today. But here the larger population in Florida cuts against them.
The critical element for identification and control measures is testing per unit of population, so on a per capita basis Louisiana actually has a testing rate that is 3 times greater than in Florida. In fact, Louisiana has a testing rate today that is more than 1 in 100. A 1% population testing rate here is on the same plane as that in New York, which has the highest in the entire county.
So even though Florida has a respectable testing rate, there may well already be pockets of undiscovered infection, particularly in rural areas that are waiting to flower, as their overall state testing continues to increase. There is more dark and shadow in the Florida testing hallway than in Louisiana. More light means more cases.
So, in a weird sort of parallel epidemic event, Louisiana is already in the Fourth Quarter, and Florida is still in the First Quarter. That means Louisiana’s far stricter control measures have less time to affect the outcome here. Florida has a longer window to modify the bad results (to bend the curve) from now on, but its lax efforts, and late start put it in a bind. If Floridians are. Slow to react or don’t buy the science and prefer Godly inspired or Trump whistled blow offs, the situation could be significantly worse.
The range of likely results is represented by the shaded areas on the IHME graphics, and are consonant with the recent White House range of US minimum expected deaths of 100,000 to 240,000.
What that translates to for the scoffers and conspiracy theorists is that the Florida projected total of 7,000 deaths by early August, could just as well be 16,800 if the brand-new Statewide stay at home order is ignored or foot dragged by reluctant, uncooperative citizens there.
The game isn’t over til it’s over. We are not used to a double parallel game played at different rates but all coming together for a final score result at the end of the first wave, say August 4.
I don’t know, but I think I’ll bet on Louisiana’s stricter public health controls implemented 3 weeks ago to deliver a well-deserved loss for us in the Pandemic Race, with a much better human outcome for our neighbors here close to home.
Everybody is waiting with anxious regard.
In the meantime:
Stay At Home. Do your Part. Don’t Be a Dick.
