This is a mantra all should heed. National political polls early on are worthless. National polls closer to election day are also worthless. Anybody who remembers 2016 will grok on this simple fact.
As Rick Wilson, one smart ass political strategist keeps saying: There is no national election. The Electoral College is All that Matters. There are 50 state elections this year, and only 15 make any difference in the outcome. 35 are already decided and baked in.
So, in this time of trouble with other serious concerns like COVID-19 weighing on all of us, let’s have a simple dashboard of the state polls that matter starting 100 days out (the outer limit of relevance to the final result.)
Thanks to the number crunchers and aggregators at RealClearPolitics.com, we have compiled a list of all swingy state Presidential Polls reported each day starting on July 26, 2020. All polls are included. If there is more than one state poll reported on a given day, the results are averaged for this purpose.
As of today, then we have nine days of data to chart.
There are lots of blank spaces, as you would expect in early August. There are a total of 18 polls in the nine days, or about 2 relevant state polls per day now. Biden is ahead in 16 of the 18 state days reported. So what.
These results by themselves don’t mean a hill of beans, until a significant number of additional days are tabulated.
On the other hand, Trump won only 2 polls by a single point. In 2016 he won 10 of the 12 indicator swingy seats. And no one has tested Colorado, Iowa, or Texas during this nine-day period.
So Mr. I’m Up In All the Real Polls that Count is just blowing his usual smoke. But this time in the group of states that comprise 198 electoral votes, and will decide his re-election fate. Better Hold the Cigars for Now.
The only other serous lesson to be drawn from this initial offering is a comparison to CNN’s summary of recent national polls, where Biden is leading by anywhere from 8-15 points.
That’s not what the state specific polls say. Biden’s leads are mostly less than 5 points, and never higher than 9. Big difference. And Rick Wilson is shouting from the gallery that only 15 states matter. The 12 states included here are on that list, except maybe Texas (a perennial Democratic reach that will flip sometime not too far distant).
If anybody who is a Democrat, or Independent, or Never Trumper is ready to break out the champagne, they are just plains nuts.
And that is before Trump.45 gets around to declaring the entire Presidential election Null & Void because of Mail In Voter Fraud. Which you can see coming a country mile off, people.
More later.
America, Do Your Job.
Vote November 3
Absentee or In-Person If You Can