Today is Saturday October 24, 2020. 10 Days to Go.
Gut Check Time Folks!
This is not your average Election. Trump is NOT NORMAL. Everyone already knows that.
But we still count actual votes in America, not conspiracy theories, or authoritarian command fantasies.
The Hot Spotlight is on and will stay on 24/7 until Tuesday after next.
Dr. Michael P. McDonald is an Election Data God. He was in 2016 as well. He is a Master of What Is, not What Might Happen. He doesn’t get too forward over his skis. And damn is he fast to compile and report.
Michael McDonald’s United States Elections Project database, “2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics” is the first GoTo site to track the 2020 US Voter Tsunami as it develops.
Today
As of 3 PM Central Time on October 24,2020
- Voters have cast a total of 56,567,346 ballots in the reporting states*
- Mail In Ballots: 38,684,805 Ballots
- In Person Votes 17,882,541 Votes
- Nationally, voters have cast 41.1% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election
- Voters have requested a total of 86,179,872 ballots in the reporting states
4 Days Ago
As of 1 PM Central Time on October 20,2020
- Voters have cast a total of 35,188,719 ballots in the reporting states
- Nationally, voters have cast 25.4% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election
- Voters have requested a total of 83,688,443 ballots in the reporting states
Old News
Prior 2016 Statistics per McDonald:
- Total Early Votes: 47,242,753
- Early in-Person Votes: 23,024,146
- Early Mail In Votes Returned: 24,218,607
- Early Mail In Ballots requested: 35,209.256
- 2016 Total Final Vote for US President: 136,753,936
Note Bene: Always refer to the complete descriptions, caveats, and limitations, particularly with respect to individual states and the changing operations of each of the 50 glorious states individual voting regulations and early voting reporting policies, which in their entirety will flat out Blow Your Mind, Baby. Not to mention when State governments, Federal and State Courts insist on monkeywrenching major rules even at this late date.
So, What’s Up With All This?
In 2016, Early Voting accounted for 34.5% of the final total votes cast. Of that number, 48.7% was In Person voting, and 51.3% was Mail In voting. And 68.8% of Mail In Ballots requested were returned for counting.
In 2020 voters have cast 56.6 million early votes so far, eclipsing their entire 2016 effort, with 10 days to go. The total at 1 PM on October 20 was 35.2 million, an increase of 21.4 million in the last four days. Americans are adding early votes at more than 5.35 million per day each day this week.
Each 500,000 votes added in 2020 represents approximately a 1% increase from the final total in 2016. Every 5.35 million votes in 24 hours is an 11% increase in the entire 2016 Early Voting total. Hang on to your Ever-loving Hats, America!
In 2016, the final ratio of Mail In to In Person Early Voting was fairly close (51.3% vs. 48.7%), a 2.6% difference. So far in 2020, the ratio is more than 2 to 1, or 68.4% Mail In versus 31.6% In Person, based on state reported data available for about half of all Early Votes cast so far. The Good News for Republicans is that this gap has narrowed from 6 to 1 four days ago, but with a huge absolute vote count difference between the two types of 20.8 million votes.
I don’t know how much more early voting will occur during the next 9 days, but if it is about 5.35 million total new votes per day, that would add 48.2 million more Early Votes to the current total of 56.6 million, for a monumental total of roughly 105 million early votes for 2020.
In 2016 there were a total of 136.7 million votes cast, almost 90 million on Election Day Itself. It is easy to imagine that the actual vote on election day might be only about 60 million this year (a drop of 33%) due to Pandemic concerns. Even so, that might still result in a Total Presidential Vote of 165 Million, by far the most in US History.
US Elections Project calculates that the US VAP (Voting Age Population) in November 2020 is 257.6 million. If 165 million votes should be cast and counted cast in 2020 , that would mark a National Voter Turnout Rate of 64.1%.**
No Presidential Election in the last 50 years (since 1972, including Reagan) has engaged more than 55% of the US voting populace, except Obama in 2008 (57.1%). 2020 looks like it may set the new modern record. This Year, the People Will Be Heard.
Voters have requested 86.2 million Mail In ballots this year, a further increase of 2.5 million ballots in the past 4 days. For practical purposes, considering the creaky and sabotaged USPS delivery time systems, that is probably the last substantial increase in mail ballots sent outbound. The 2020 total of Mail In Ballots requested is then almost 2.5 times the number in 2016.
Congratulations, America. Doing Your Voting Job. Taking It Seriously.
The 2020 number of Early Votes is staggering, and growing larger by 5+ million every day.
The People are Hungry to Have their Voices Heard Right Now for the Ages. That is Terrific for Democracy and Real American Values.
Vote Suppressors and Fiddlers better watch out. Your exclusion tactics are fixin’ to get Washed Out like a Louisiana Cat 5 Hurricane Coastal Surge hit them. 15-20 feet of Voter Tsunami will tend to do that to you. And our National Guard is not on station to offer you suppression aid and assistance.
Nevertheless, 10 Days left at the end of an Election, when times warps so much more slowly for the Leader, can feel like an eternity. There are nasty tricks ahead, we know not yet what they are.
Still, if Republicans are Confident of Victory compared to earlier this week, they are jointly overindulging in smoking Aromatic Herbs together.
*These are complex matters involving 50 independent state election systems without central coordination and disparate local operating rules. Always read the fine print carefully as there are many combinations of reporting transparency. That said, these guys are among the very best. And the Damn Federal Government which ought to be right on top of this for providing citizen oversight information is AWOL with prejudice. Anyway, approach any conclusions and data summations with due caution. Caveat Emptor.
**US Elections Project calculates that the US VEP (Voting Eligible Population) in November 2020 is 239.2 million. If 160 million votes are cast in 2020 , that would mark a National Voter Turnout Rate of 66.9%. McDonald believes the VEP is a more accurate denominator for calculating voter election turnout, but many other standard sources, including Wikipedia use VAP. For historical comparisons, above we use VAP.