Trump E-Gram: Voting Blue Skies Over (November 1, 2020)

We are just about 24 hours out from the crowning Big Event. There is essentially No Doubt that this will be the largest Presidential Election in American History. It would take an unprecedented nationwide Weather Calamity to derail this prediction.

This is Electoral and Political History, Folks. And you are part of it, as it happens in front of your eyes. The 2020 Early Vote is now essentially over, as Elections Officials, poll watchers, volunteers, and GOTV folks around the country transform working spaces into our Democracy’s Sacred Voting Booths.

More than 93 million voters have already had their say, though the counts haven’t been compiled or published yet. The official Election Count will not and cannot be over on Tuesday. Counting ballots in a National Race for President of the United States has never, not a single time, been done in one day. Not once in 244 years since this Republic was Founded. More ignorant Trumpian Bullshit.

In 2016 there were 930,000 overseas ballots from our dedicated Military Forces, their families, and other Americans living abroad which will not be delivered and properly counted by Election Boards until after Election Day, November 3. So, Trump wants to disenfranchise the Military Heroes he claims to revere. Here is just one more in a string of incredibly stupid examples of Trump.45 (the Personal Military Obligation Dodger), disrespecting those who honorably wear the uniform and Serve Our Country overseas. What an Ass.

Thanks to some incredible work by political scientists, reporters, and state and local Elections Officials we have a rather exact and nearly complete data picture available to compare 2016 with 2020 for Early Voting patterns, and what that might portend for Tuesday and beyond about 2020 Presidential Election Total Vote Counts.

Here’s the money chart, as of 4 PM today, based on published reliable sources. There is a lot of stuff here, but some highlights strike me as jump off the page obvious.

All in, Americans have already cast 37 million more votes this year than in 2016, an increase Nationwide of 66%. The increase in Mail In Ballots is much higher than for In Person votes. No big surprise, given the Pandemic reality and responsible people taking precautions, except if you drink Trump Kool Aid. In Person Early Vote is up by 10.7 million, and Mail in Ballots by 26.3 million; more than 2 ½ times as many. Mail In Ballots comprise 70% of the overall increase in Early Voting from 2016 to 2020. So much for Trump.45’s gut bet on the Way to Go for Voting 2020. The RNC was right in its original plan; Trump was a dummy.

Finally, the 2016 ratio of Mail In to In Person Early Voting was 59%-41%, in 2020 it has increased to 63%-37%, an additional 8-point swing against Republican voting preferences. As Good Ole Ev Dirksen, Republican Senate Minority Leader used to say (loosely adapted), “a million here, a million there, pretty soon you’re talking real votes.”

There is no modern precedent (75 years) for a Presidential Election to be conducted in the teeth of a Worldwide Pandemic, worse in the US than anywhere else, while the country’s usual social constructs to gather in large groups are hobbled. So, the Great Question now is, how many more votes can we expect on Election Day itself this year, November 3, 2020?

Here, history and the Early Voting patterns give us some clues to help make an estimate. Not a guarantee, but a reasonable guess. In 2016, 81 million American voted In Person on Election Day, about 59% of all the votes cast that year. So, America could handle 81 million more voters in person on Tuesday to add to the 2020 Early total of 93 million.

That would make a Final Total of 174 million which would be a Voting Tsunami par excellence for American Democracy. It would also crush the previous American record of 137 million set in 2016. But is it likely?

Here’s why I think the 2020 In Person Election Day turnout will be lower than in 2016, despite markedly increased passions in voters on both sides. To start with, there are already 37 million extra early votes in the till compared to 2016. This is due to incredible voter enthusiasm for Early Voting in general and Mail In Ballots in particular, in the Time Of Trump’s Covid Plague. 37 million extra votes to start is 46% of the Election Day turnout in 2016, Done and Dusted. Early Birds get the Worm. These Voting Birds are much more Blue than Red, so it seems.

In all of American History the increase in Presidential votes from one election to the next has never been more than 17 million votes in any one cycle (and that was 2000 to 2004), when the last sitting President who lost the Popular Vote was running for re-election, by the way. Allowing for population growth from 2016 to 2020, it is very unlikely that significantly more than a 20-22 million vote increase in total votes is possible, even without a Pandemic hobbling things. !74 million as a realistic estimate seems too high by a fair bit (maybe 10-15 million too high).

It would be nice to have accurate 2020 actual voter registration figures to use for analysis, but so far as I know they are not yet available in one place to consult. The most recent sets I can find are for 2016 and 2018. Forgive me if I missed a source. But we can use USEP data in their place.

Then, there is a factual historical limit on the voter turnout, even for the most contentious elections in our country, though 2020 certainly qualifies near the very top of the list. The highest turnout ratio versus Voting Age Population (VAP) at any time in the last 100 years is just shy of 63% .

If 2020 matches the All Time Voter Turnout Record at 63% VAP there would be 162,3 million votes. That would be a credit to America, and certainly a credit to Donald Trump as well, even if in an unwelcome way. As far as he is concerned, since More Votes Equals Less Chance of a Republican Victory, that’s why all the Republican Lawyers are fighting so hard to depress, suppress, close down, and uncount as many votes as possible. A weird way to prove how popular your Great Economy, and Second Term Agenda are for everyone here in America.

As an intellectual exercise, it is possible to just barely imagine a hypothetical 65% VAP turnout this year; that would mean 167.4 million votes would be cast, and that would mean there would be 74 million votes cast this Tuesday. Less than 2016, but still a jaw dropping number.

Since the total was 137 million in 2016, that would be a one cycle increase of 30 million, almost twice as many as ever before in American history. But this Blue Sky scenario runs into another practical speedbump. Presidential elections for each cycle since 2008 have never gotten above 68% of Voter Eligible Population (VEP) turnout. The VEP stands as a top end ceiling for who qualifies to be registered in each Election Cycle and therefor entitled to cast a legal ballot for any candidate.

And Republicans, not a shock, spend millions of taxpayer dollars and legislative time state by state trying to tamp down VEP, though automatic voter registration cancellations, onerous identity document requirements (like Birth Certificates for 90 year old widows who don’t drive and live in poor communities), post-felony disenfranchisement rules, and a host of other nasty, but well-honed tricks.

In any case, applying a 68% cap to the 2020 Voter Eligible Population (VEP) to constrain voter registrations puts a top end potential for 2020 voters at 163.3 million, 4 million less than the presumed practical high end.

When all is said and done, my Best Estimate for Final Voter Turnout in 2020 is somewhere between 158-162 million.

That would be a 23 million vote increase from 2016, itself another American Voting Record. That would be almost a 17% increase in one 4-year cycle, reflecting the intense focus of Americans on this race.

And that would also mean that on November 3, this Tuesday, between 65 and 69 million more Americans will go to our thousands of Polling Place to celebrate Democracy At Work.

That is not a disappointment. But the numbers are what they are. A 65% increase in same day voting on Election Day to match the 2020 Early Vote Tsunami is simply not in the cards. Democrats have already voted in Record Numbers, and there are not enough Republicans to drive up the totals much higher to match 2016’s Election Day.

Of course, Trump doesn’t want a Highest in History Voter Turnout. He wants a 6-8 state sly increased turnout, and not statewide even in the juicy states. His microtargeting dream from 2016 is flipped. Then he wanted to drive his numbers up; now he must drive Democratic votes down. We shall see. But it is very likely the flood of votes already cast makes that attempt a non-starter. Even with a Republican Lawyer Monkey Wrenching Cavalry jumping in as early as November 4 to screw with the legitimate results.

It’s pretty simple. The more people who vote in more places, the less likely Trump can keep his job. Like the 93 million American who have already had their say in 2020.

And the 65-70 million more who will speak in 24 hours.

160 million American Votes for President in one election will be a Fine Record, and a Fitting Tribute to all our Founding Fathers (and Mothers).

Vote America. You Done Good.

Democracy Works if You Do Your Part.

This election season has been a drag on our hopes and social fabric for nearly everyone. We need some Music. When I thought of this post, I immediately scanned the memory banks for Blue Skies musical inspiration. We start with an eponymous jazzy rendition by Rod Stewart in a dapper mood.

The more profound related song is “the White Cliffs of Dover”. This has particular resonance for me for several reasons. First it was written in 1941 during Wartime, when the Already Great America was banding with Our Allies to do a job none of us could perform alone. The lyrics were written by an American, but the scene is Southern England, under intense attack by World Evil during the Battle of Britain. We weren’t in the War yet, but Americans were volunteering to fight with our English brothers, and Lend-Lease American Productivity for the War Effort was full steam ahead with food, oil, arms and materiel, including war ships sent by a truly Great President who didn’t ask for payment first or a Bigger Contribution, like this current ignorant yahoo. He got it; so did Americans in general.

It became an international hit and was sung and recorded by Americans during WWII including Kate Smith, Glenn Miller, Louis Prima and later by Connie Francis, Bing Crosby, Jim Reeves, and the Righteous Brothers. In other words, an All-American Hit in its own right.

The song is a bit sappy, but it expresses a resolve that we will prevail much needed today as we wallow in the Pit of Trump’s Utter Viral Incompetence.

Here are two versions by the original English songstress , Dame Vera Lynn and the D-Day Darlings, both celebrating the critical contribution of Women to Solving the World’s Big Problems. Nobody said “We’re going to put your husbands to work, Dear” in the Middle of WWII. Rosie the Riveter would have knocked the Sucker Out, and I mean stone cold.

Finally, a version by the American duo, the Righteous Brothers, for a little bit of Blue-Eyed Soul. Enjoy a brief tuneful break.

It is a tiny bit ironic that the song’s avian protagonists are Blue Birds, considering the Trumpster’s freeloading ways on this social platform meant for civil social communication, not the dispensing of lies and conspiracy theories.

And also since one Barack H. Obama daily kicks Trump.45’s ass around the block and back for their respective number of followers, by 10’s of millions. So, Trump has another loser status to 44 that he can chew on and Tweet about. Finally, in the original lyric, there is reference to the iconic Thumbs Up sign used by the brave warriors of the RAF during the Battle of Britain. Showing in another small way that so much of Trump’s shtick is recycled, stolen or otherwise misappropriated content by The World’s Greatest Second Hand Donnie.

From Wikipedia entry for “The White Cliffs of Dover“:

“(There’ll Be Bluebirds Over) The White Cliffs of Dover” is a popular World War II song composed in 1941 by Walter Kent to lyrics by Nat Burton. Made famous in Vera Lynn’s 1942 version, it was one of Lynn’s best-known recordings and among the most popular World War II tunes.

The song was written about a year after the Royal Air Force and German Luftwaffe aircraft had been fighting over southern England, including the white cliffs of Dover, in the Battle of Britain. Nazi Germany had conquered much of Europe and in 1941 was still bombing Britain. With neither America nor the Soviet Union having yet joined the war, Britain was the only major power fighting the Axis powers in Europe (see The Darkest Hour). The American lyricist, Nat Burton, wrote his lyric (unaware that the bluebird is not indigenous to Britain) and asked Kent to set it to music. Notable phrases include “Thumbs Up!” which was an RAF and RCAF term for permission to go, and “flying in those angry skies” where the air war was taking place.

The lyrics looked toward a time when the war would be over, and peace would rule over the iconic white cliffs, Britain’s symbolic border with the European mainland.

The full song includes two verses rarely found in recordings:

I’ll never forget the people I met braving those angry skies.

I remember well as the shadows fell, the light of hope in their eyes.

And tho’ I’m far away, I can still hear them say “Thumbs Up!”

for when the dawn comes up,… There’ll be blue birds over…

When night shadows fall, I’ll always recall out there across the sea

Twilight falling down on some little town;

It’s fresh in my memory.

I hear mother pray, and to her baby say “Don’t cry,”

This is her lullaby…. There’ll be blue birds over…

The song was made most famous by Vera Lynn and sung to troops during the war. It was a top ten hit in America for Kate Smith in 1942, and Glenn Miller recorded a version in November 1941.

Jimmie Baker frequently performed it in Europe during the war, and the song was sung by the vocal group The King’s Men on a 3 February 1942 episode of the Fibber McGee and Molly Show. Ray Eberle and Tex Beneke also included it in their repertoires.

In 1944, a version was recorded by Louis Prima and his Orchestra. This version reached number nine on the The Harlem Hit Parade chart.

The song is the terrace anthem of the supporters of Dover Athletic F.C.

The Checkers, an American group, released an R&B version of the song in 1953 which became very popular. Other artists who have recorded the song include Connie Francis, Bing Crosby, Ray Conniff, Jim Reeves, Acker Bilk, The Righteous Brothers (a hit in the UK Singles Chart), Steeleye Span, Bert Kaempfert and The Hot Sardines on their debut album released in 2014.

In the 1990s, British pop duo Robson & Jerome recorded the song as part of a double A-side release, coupled with “Unchained Melody”; the single stayed at No. 1 for seven weeks in the UK Singles Chart, selling over a million copies and also making it the number one song with the longest title, including brackets. The Jive Aces released a swing version in 2005 (similar to Acker Bilk’s arrangement).

On 18 February 2009, a story in The Daily Telegraph announced that Dame Vera Lynn was suing the British National Party (BNP) for using her version of “The White Cliffs of Dover” on an anti-immigration album without her permission. Lynn’s lawyer claimed sales of the song would help boost the BNP’s coffers and would link her name to the party’s far-right views by association.

On 12 October 2009, Ian Hislop presented a half-hour BBC Radio 4 programme about the song.

On 9 May 2015, Elaine Paige performed the song at VE Day 70: A Party to Remember at Horse Guards Parade in London.