As the pre-general election campaign intensifies before the two national party conventions in July (Republicans in Cleveland July 18-21 and Democrats in Philadelphia July 25-28), Trump’s intended tactical strategies are becoming much clearer.
He will ignore traditional political wisdom and advice. He does not want to focus on a traditional get out the vote ground game, or campaign based state by state staffing, or paid polling experts, or data based voter micro targeting efforts which have been the fundamental backbone of all recent national campaigns. Trump knows better, at least in his own mind.
He will rely on his Triple Pillars of Political Winning: Unearned TV (free) and media coverage, massive political rallies, and his Twitter Army of amplified support. These pillars have brought him from 4% support in June 2015 to the brink of capturing the Republican nomination one month from now. He does not intend to change his tactics for the general election.
Experts and pundits were wrong about the primaries, and Trump is certain only he knows best. The Republican leadership can go along, or get hanged. Trump will do it alone (and he wouldn’t really mind doing it that way either), as he has made clear again several times this past week, while railing against conspiracies, and losers like Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, and any other reluctant Republican officials who won’t fall in line.
Since mass political rallies are one sturdy leg of his strategy stool, it is worthwhile to examine evidence about his public performance drawing power. As everyone knows, Trump is overly fond of superlatives, and he repeatedly points out that his crowds are record-breaking, the best, the biggest ever, the most awesome, largest by far, history making, etc. Trump frequently boasts about the size of his crowds during his stump speeches, and often refers to previous rally crowd sizes to further validate his vast voter support in the now.
From the beginning, there have been richly fishy aromas of status exaggeraticus* wafting about the reported crowd estimates provided by Trump himself or the campaign spokespeople, and his fervent supporters. Their statements tend to conflict with estimates provided by police, venue officials, news media, and the official (Fire-Marshal) capacity ratings of various rally locations.
It is an instructive exercise to track Trump’s Rally travel schedule and crowd scores over time. It is doubly interesting since after a year on the political hustings (from the German for governing assembly, now an campaign event where a candidate is present), Trump has begun to appear more than once in the same cities, so a time based comparison by location is possible.
Enough rallies have taken place before and after primary votes to partially assess his mass political appeal, and its waveform (ebbs and flows).
This list is a work in progress. I have attempted to use multiple sources to gather as accurate information as possible, given that there is no absolute-to-the-person precise count of how many supporters attend a rally (versus protestors, news media, onlookers, security personnel, and support staff, among other categories).
The information for each rally with pertinent details is presented in a standardized format to facilitate comparisons between various cities at different times.
Trump’s Rally Crowd Tracker (First Installment June 18, 2016)
- Date: June 18, 2016 (Saturday)
- City: Phoenix, AZ
- Venue: Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Crowd Sizes
- Trump: 8,000
- News Media: 4,500
- Event Managers: 4.500
- Police or City Officials: 5,000-6,000
- Venue Total Capacity: 14,870
- Crowd Exaggeration Score: 33% (8,000 vs. 6,000)
- Crowd Inflation Rating: 1+ ET (Erect Towers)**
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/32254839/trump-rally-draws-6000-in-phoenix
- Date: June 18, 2016 (Saturday)
- City: Las Vegas, NV
- Venue: Treasure Island Hotel Mystere Theater
Crowd Sizes
- Trump:
- News Media: 1,600
- Event Managers:
- Police or City Officials:
- Venue Total Capacity: 1,600
- Crowd Exaggeration Score: N/A
- Crowd Inflation Rating:
http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/trump-energizes-supporters-treasure-island-rally-las-vegas
- Date: June 17, 2016 (Friday)
- City: Houston, TX
- Venue: Marriott Woodlands Convention Center Ballroom
Crowd Sizes
- Trump: 10,000-20,000
- News Media: 5,000
- Event Managers: 5,000
- Police or City Officials:
- Venue Total Capacity: 4,900
- Crowd Exaggeration Score: 100% (10,000 vs. 5,000)
- Crowd Inflation Rating: 3+ ET (Erect Towers)
Sources: https://twitter.com/wpjenna
http://www.houstonpress.com/news/donald-trump-holds-noisy-campaign-rally-in-the-woodlands-8492371
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/06/17/donald-trump-rally-houston-texas-800pm-live-stream/
- Date: June 16, 2016 (Thursday)
- City: Dallas, TX
- Venue: Gilley’s Southside Ballroom
Crowd Sizes
- Trump: 4,500
- News Media: 3,000
- Event Managers:
- Police or City Officials:
- Venue Total Capacity: 3,800
- Crowd Exaggeration Score: 50% (4,500 vs. 3,000)
- Crowd Inflation Rating: 2+ ET (Erect Towers)
http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/Trump-to-Host-Dallas-Rally-383154681.html
Trump’s Rally Lessons Editorial Comment
Trump can’t help it. Even when he is reasonably successful (drawing good crowds) he can’t resist puffery and exaggeration, as if no one will take notice. Some Trump Kool-Aid supporters apparently drink deep, and discount any contrary figures from Police, venue managers, journalists, or the legal crowd limits imposed by the Fire Marshal. The phantom rally goers that Trump conjures up now will be the very same ghosts whose imaginary votes sadly will not be counted in the final tallies on November 8th.
So far, Trump’s greatest rally triumph was an August 2015 outdoor stadium rally in Mobile AL (said to be 30,000 strong). He has been on an intense fundraising and public rally trip this past week. At four rallies in four cities in three important states (Texas, Nevada, and Arizona) over three days, he has drawn a total crowd of roughly 15,000 souls. This is just about ½ of the crowd at one rally a year ago. Are people bored? Is Trump’s message less appealing to the general public? Are his foot-in-mouth insult tirades catching up with him? Is it time for summer re-runs?
*Status Exaggeraticus Syndrome (SES) is a newly described psycho-neuro-medical syndrome, characterized by involuntary overestimates of personal worth and related activities, often of marked degree, even in the face of objective evidence to the contrary. Frank exploration of monetary assets and financial net worth are especially sensitive subjects for affected persons. Sufferers are only intermittently aware of the extent and seriousness of the condition, and may vehemently deny its existence, or that they might be afflicted. Indeed, they often take extreme offense at the mere suggestion, and respond harshly, particularly through a swarm of insulting social media posts, such as multiple angry Tweets. The condition can be present in a severe form in the political realm. Status exaggeraticus is a aggravated variant of the more common Resume Inflation Syndrome, with which it shares some presenting symptoms. It affects men more often than women, and may involve preoccupation with the size and performance of various body parts.
**The short form symbol for Crowd Rally SES measures is given as the ET (Erect Towers) score, on a scale of 0-4. A zero score is given when the ratio of claimed to actual crowd size is <25% inflated. A score of 1 ET is for an inflated crowd ratio of 25%-50%. A score of 2 ET is assigned for an inflated crowd ratio of 50%-100%. A 3 ET score is given for an inflated ration of 100% or more. A 4 ET score is for truly porn-worthy crowd inflation ratios of 400% or more (claimed size 5 or more times greater than actual).
***Hot Kool-Aid Man is a better mascot representative symbol for Trump’s angriest, most deeply committed supporters: those who are terminally angry at immigrants, Muslims, the lack of jobs, their decreased social status, minorities, uppity women, and most Democrats.
From the Wikia entry for Hot Kool-Aid Man:
He wears a costume similar to the Kool-Aid Man’s. It consists of a red shirt and pants, and instead of the glass pitcher the Kool-Aid Man usually has, he can generate a force field around himself that looks like a pitcher. When he generates this force field, a general weakness is being able to be tugged on by someone holding the handle. A giant smiley face shows up instead of his regular face when he is in his superhero form.
He can shoot steaming hot Kool-Aid out of his hands. He can also control Kool-Aid inside your stomach and give you disturbingly painful stomach-aches.
Look out, World! Extra Hot Kool Aid coming your way!!
The rest of us (raised before 1978 and Jim Jones in Guyana) can remember long summer days with the real Kool-Aid in iced pitchers and smile.
