Our last tour through the Mauve Polling Gallery, with works based on the brushwork of the HuffPost Pollster was on September 11. We return a month later to see how the wall hung graphics have fared with time. Sharp eyes required. Review the previous September guided tour here.
Please recall that the great advantage of the Mauve Index method is that is a trending model of aggregated poll results. It should be more accurate in the end than many alternate twitchy approaches, but the visual averages are slower to react to the very latest trends. The trend is less volatile, and the Mauve confidence band provides an at a glance visual representation without detailed mathematical manipulation and spreadsheet head scratching by the viewer. The power is in the graph.
There is no question Trump has just suffered through an awful week just concluded, what with the audio visual Access Hollywood tapes, the strain of the second debate in St. Louis Paul Ryan’s cowardly retreat from campaigning with him, and all manner of other dastardly goings on.
Note that none of these potentially awkward adverse events will be reflected in the Mauve Index review for today. However, any effects, pro or con, on both candidates from the First Presidential Debate on September 26 at Hofstra University, and most of any effects from the Vice Presidential debate on October 4, will be captured in these new results.
Introduction
The Mauve Index Gallery is color coded polling review of the 13 Battleground States for 2016 based on the polling aggregation and modeling of the HuffPost Pollster, one of the premier respected analytical sites for this election. Trump has the daunting task of reversing at least 64 swing state electoral votes, if he is to prevail in November.
The 2016 collection of 13 Battleground Swing States, were previously grouped in three categories: Five with major Mauve polling overlap (Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Arizona, and Georgia); two with modest Mauve exhibition (Florida and North Carolina), and six with no Mauve at all (Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Wisconsin).
The Mauve Index 526 Polling Code: Revised October Edition
Major Mauve Polling Subset: Less Major
- Ohio: Clinton, narrow lead, major Mauve overlap (0.5 now vs. 1.2 then)
- Nevada: Clinton lead, large overlap not whole range ( 0.5 now vs. 1.0 then)
- Iowa: Trump Flip, leads with modest overlap (2.6 T now vs. 1.3 C then)
- Arizona: Trump improves, hint overlap near gone (2.9 T now vs. 1.9 T then)
- Georgia: Trump improves, no overlap (3.5 T now vs. 1.2 T then)
The biggest change from the September color scheme is an Iowa flip and switch. Trump now has taken the lead and separated from Clinton enough to have only a modest mauve overlap in his favor, compared to a complete overlap in September with a Clinton lead. Trump is doing well in Iowa and pulling in the right direction for Republicans here.
Trump leads by about three points in each of the 2012 Republican winners (Arizona and Georgia) in the battleground collection, an improvement over the last 30 days by 1-2 points per state. In addition, the associated Mauve wave form has receded to just a touch (Arizona) or disappeared entirely (Georgia). These two Red states from 2012 seem like a fairly safe Republican harbor for 2016. No great surprise., but welcome news for the faithful.
Clinton remains in the lead in both Ohio and Nevada, and the Mauve overlap had decreased substantially for both. This generally means the associated results are more stable (i.e., more likely to be correct as to finish order). On the other hand, Clinton’s numerical lead has also decreased by about 0.5 points in both states in the last month. So it would be fair to say October advantage Democrats, but some tightening is evident with 28 days until Election Day.
Overall, in the formerly Major Mauve 5-state subset, there is less mauve coloration (polling results are more convergent, and probably more accurate in shadowing the outcome. Trump has flipped Iowa for now (biggest news in the past month), established a pretty good handle on Georgia and Arizona (which shouldn’t have been in the Battleground mix in the first place), and remains behind, but close, in both Ohio and Nevada. Trump lead in Iowa is probably a permanent one this year.
Somewhat Mauve Polling Subset
- Florida: Clinton lead status quo, almost no overlap (2.5 now and then)
- North Carolina: Clinton lead, significant overlap (1.2 now vs. 2.2 then)
The two-member Somewhat Mauve coloration gallery displays the states where one candidate has something of a lead (the race leans), but the outcome is still competitive. Two states filled this bill in September (Florida and North Carolina).
For October there has been little over painting in these critical states. The Mauve component has nearly been washed away in Florida (just a tint left to Clinton’s benefit), but remains significant in North Carolina. Clinton continues to lead in both, and there has been a very modest narrowing of the trend line gap in North Carolina by about 1 point (1.2 now vs. 2.2 then). Florida has a steady brushstroke at a 2.5 point advantage for Clinton.
North Carolina is the only original 2012 Republican swing state on the Battleground board, and Trump has made a very small advance there recently, but not in Florida.
In the former Somewhat Mauve group of two, Advantage Clinton, though a take away for Democrats of Red 201 North Carolina is pretty dicey compared to holding Florida.
No Mauve Polling Subset
- Colorado: Clinton lead, no overlap (3.9 now vs. 5.9 then)
- Michigan: Clinton lead, no overlap (5.9 vs. 6.6 then)
- Pennsylvania: Clinton lead, no overlap (5.8 now vs. 6.1 then)
- New Hampshire: Clinton lead, kiss of overlap (4.3 now vs. 5.2 then)
- Virginia: Clinton lead, no overlap (6.6 now vs. 8.7 then)
- Wisconsin: Clinton lead, no overlap (5.2 now vs. 6.8 then)
Clinton leads Trump in all six in October, as she did in September,, by reasonably health margins (4-6 points). There is no mauve overlap in any, except the faintest blush newly seen in New Hampshire, to indicate a significantly competitive race in November. A mere kiss of Mauve color if you will. The other five states have an obvious no-color gap, as a safety margin for the Democratic candidate.
There has been a very modest shrinkage of September leads (less than 2 points) in each of the six states. This is not unexpected as the election nears ta conclusion and undecided voters begin to firm up their choices about which candidate to support.
There is no evidence for any significant new-found support in this group for Trump, and the remaining time left to persuade large numbers of voters to reverse course and change their election calculus is extremely short, absent a catastrophic political event.
So, among the solid September No Mauve Battleground states Clinton was leading, there is a bit of softening in New Hampshire support a month later, 4 weeks from election day. In the normal course of events that Kiss of Mauve will not alter the November 8 voting results, since the October lead is still a relatively healthy 4 points.
Mauve Index October Summary
In the month since we last strolled through the gallery, The Mauve Index has shimmered a bit and reflects light at a partly new angle. The biggest change in the state polling portraits for Trump is a new favorable gloss in Iowa (6 electoral votes). He is quite likely to keep hold of Georgia and Arizona on Election Day. Ohio and Nevada are clearly up for grabs. North Carolina still appears within his grasp. Florida is fading.
In the No Mauve September category, Clinton’s leads are fairly robust, with the slight softening seen in New Hampshire.
Hypothetically, if you were to award Trump Iowa, (6), Nevada (6), and Ohio (18) from the Democratic electoral vote stash from2012, and he keeps the North Carolina (15) prize, and you throw in New Hampshire (4) to boot, Trump’s electoral map would improve on Romney’s 2012 performance by 34 votes, leading to a final result of 298 to 240, better but still a losing effort. Just a reminder that he is currently behind in the aggregate polling 5 out of 6 of these state races, and has been consistently behind for a year or more, so that would be a real doozy.
No chicken dinner, or a McDonalds Fish Delight for that matter, comes to Trump with this scenario.
The October walking tour of the Mauve Gallery and Index strongly suggests that the campaign decision hot-spots will be Florida and North Carolina for the last 29 days until the final show. It Trump loses either state election, he is essentially done.
Expect to see mega-dollars, mega-advertising, mega-staffing, and mega-get-out-the-vote efforts in these two Queen Bee states. At least on the Democratic side. Whether Trump and the Republicans have the stamina or the financial resources to mount a matching crash counter-effort is the question.
Somebody must be paying close attention in both campaign travel and planning offices. Where are both candidates today? In Florida. Trump today, Wednesday (2 events), and Thursday. In North Carolina on Friday. Pence in North Carolina on Wednesday.
Clinton’s schedule? In Florida (with Al Gore), and North Carolina today. Bill Clinton in Florida today (3 events). Wednesday, Tim Caine in North Carolina.
A 6 on 6 tie battle on the schedule in the next 4 days. Expect frequent repeats to come from both sides.
This polling outcome prediction assumes the highly publicized recent events since October 6th don’t cause a spin-out and down in Trump’s support among women and independent voters. If there is any noticeable shift among these motivated voters, Trump’s chances will be dreary, imaginary and ghost-like.
A General Election Addendum
We have said before that the real core of polling analysis must focus on Battleground states, for that is where the 50 state by state electoral contests are won or lost. The real voting power for America’s President. Nonetheless, it is nearly impossible not to take at least a quick look at the overall General Election horserace status, ,and HuffPost Pollster is no different, and does not disappoint.
Here is a picture of the General Election 2-way polling trend from earlier today.
Two obvious features are of immediate note. The first is, try as he might, Trump has not broken the 45% support barrier to the upside, no matter what he says or does. At least so far his recent raw and uncensored vitriolic personal attacks on Clinton and the former President have not been fully factored in polling trends as of October 11. But conventional political wisdom says that anyone running for national office must crack 45%, the sooner the better. It is virtually impossible to win the Presidency with less than 49% of the total votes cast (never been done in modern times), and there just aren’t that many Undecided voters left to woo.
Second, the trending average for the last two weeks for Trump is at a significant downward slant (see added arrows). He is going further underwater fast. His path to a General Election Victory is disappearing rapidly in the campaign ‘s rear view mirror. This change is exactly 180 degrees in the wrong direction. Every day leads Trump further and further off track to his Party’s detriment.
A Musical Interlude
This much polling numbers talk, even with a heavy visual summary component, warrants a musical break
Enter Hall and Oates, the Rock duo from Philly, in the important swing state of Pennsylvania. Today is Rock singer Daryl Hall’s birthday
From the Wikipedia entry:
Daryl Franklin Hohl (born in Pottstown, Pennsylvania, on October 11, 1946) and John William Oates (born April 7, 1948) first met each other at the Adelphi Ballroom in Philadelphia in 1967. At the time they met, each was heading his own musical group, Hall with The Temptones and Oates with The Masters. They were there for a band competition when gunfire rang out between two rival gangs, and in trying to escape, they ran to the same service elevator. On further discovering that they were interested in the same music and that both were attending Philadelphia’s Temple University, they started spending time together on a regular basis and eventually shared a number of apartments in the city. One of the apartments they shared had “Hall & Oates” on the mailbox, which became the duo’s name. It would take them another two years to form a musical duo, and three years after that, they signed to Atlantic Records and released their debut album. The two didn’t start working together seriously until 1970 after Oates got back from an extended stay in Europe.
Hall (the blond half and lead singer of the duo) was born in Pottstown, PA on October 11, 1946; almost 4 months to the day after Donald Trump was born in Queens NY. His first musical group was called the Temptones, when he met Daryl Hall at a musical competition playing with another group there.
Two selections from their discography for your amusement.
You Make My Dreams Come True (1981) could be a musical secular prayer that Trump offers to America’s Voters as he seeks the greatest prize in his fabulously acquisitive life. Not the first of his three wives, Ivana, whom he was married to in 1981, nor his oldest daughter, Ivanka, who was born that year, but the Pinnacle of Power for this Good Good Man.
Listen to Hall & Oates on YouTube here
Trump has had a very hard week for himself, what with salacious (pornographic) leaked tapes, and a raft of elected Republican semi-mass defections. It’s hard to understand why everyone just doesn’t get it, and see he has suffered over this too. He is a changed man. He faced his family like a man. Trump has already explained til he was blue in the face that it was Just Locker Room Talk. Let me say it again, it was just Locker Room Talk. Men do it. Just talk. He never actually did any of that stuff. It was such a long time ago. Trump respects women more than anybody. He loves women, just listen to him affirm it in public.
So far, at least, the consensus opinion of both men and women, and the fixed opinion of a bountiful majority of women, of all ages and stations in life, is a simple response, I Can’t Go for That (No can Do) (1981).
Listen on YouTube and decide for yourself