Introduction Recap
Starting October 10, we can expect there will be multiple General Election and State Specific Preference Polls released each day. Adapted from the published data presented by the RealClearPolitics crew, we can offer a Dow Jones like summary Index of the latest polling results every day.
Like the Dow Jones Index we will use standard ticker symbols for each contest (in this case the two letter state abbreviations employed by the U.S.P.S). For the National polls we will use the designation GE for General Election. Unlike the Dow Jones Index, we can provide results seven days a week, not just for Monday through Friday.
All daily polls reported by RCP for Presidential General Election and state results will be included. We will not summarize U.S. Senate contests, races for State Governor, nor the data for Presidential Approval or Right Track-Wrong Track polling results that RCP provides on their website.
For Maine and Nebraska some polling results may be reported by Congressional District (CD) instead of state wide. Such polls receive a special designation. If the Poll results are given as a tie for any individual contest, they are recorded here for our RCP Index as E, for Even.
The margins for each GE or state category each day are summed and reported as a combined Trump Score; Plus, if he is ahead that day, and Minus if he loses. All Trump positive (winning) results are highlighted in Red for the GOP’s favorite color. For GE daily summary results only the combined Trump Score is also presented as an average (total score divided by the number of GE polls conducted that day).
Let me repeat again that the RCP data trackers are a team of American Democracy Benefactors, and perform a valuable public service for all concerned citizens, regardless of Party affiliation, even if their detail work involves lots of repetitive, dry, and dusty number crunching. May their calculators always have fresh batteries and their pencils sharp points.
The RCP Weekly Progress Data Pile-Up summary for the week of Monday October 10 through Sunday October 16 is presented below.
Shout Out the Good News for Trump!
There is some Good News for Trump in the state by state polling information in this past week’s summary of RCP Presidential polling. See the chart below.
Trump prevailed in 10 separate Daily Polls from 7 different states: Missouri (MO), Maine CD-2 (ME-2), Utah (UT), Georgia (GA), Indiana (IN), Texas (TX) and Montana (MT). He actually won or tied in multiple polls in UT (3) and MO (2). Seven of his nine winning polls were by healthy margins of 4-6 points each. In two contests he won by a commanding margin of more than 10 points, which would essentially put those states out of electoral contention at this late stage of the election (MT and UT).
However, the situation in Utah is a bit complicated since Trump’s average margin for the three winning or tied polls there is just under 8 points, which would suggest a good lead, but a somewhat unstable race. Since Utah is the most Mormon state in the U.S., and Trump has had a vexatious and conflicted interaction with Mormons throughout this election cycle, his supremacy there is not assured. Utah also has not one, but two third party candidates, who are making a noticeable showing.
Fireworks over the Great Salt Lake.
Unfortunately, none of Trump state by state wins were in Battleground States, so he did not advance his plans for expansion to solid Blue States promised early this summer. Nor did he shore up his efforts to improve on Loser Romney’s 2012 electoral performance in recognized Swing states.
Trump’s Bad News Polling Broadsheet
There is an uncomfortably large amount of less than thrilling polling news in the other state polls reported by RCP. Trump showed a deficit in each of the 27 remaining Daily Polls conducted in 12 different states: North Carolina (NC), Wisconsin (WI), Pennsylvania (PA), Virginia (VA), Florida (FL), Michigan (MI), Maine (ME) and Maine CD-1 (ME-1), Ohio (OH), New Hampshire (NH), Oregon (OR), Nevada (NV), and Colorado (CO).
Trump fell behind in multiple polling contests in 8 of these states: NC (4), WI (3), MI (3), VA (3), FL (3), PA (2), NV (2), and OH (2). Nine of the states he lost in are certified Battleground States for 2016 (all except ME, MI, and OR).
In summary, the state by state RCP summary for the week of October 10-16 provides decidedly mixed, but on the whole unsatisfactory news headlines for Trump. There is no indication that he has broadened the reach of his Presidential Campaign to the Blue States of 2012, as of the latest tallies.
RCP General Election Polling Ticker Weekly Summary
The summary of all General Election (GE) nationwide polls from RCP is not Impressive for proponents of Trump’s cause. See summary chart below.
There were 25 GE polls conducted during the week. Trump won 4, tied 3, and lost 18, for a non-losing ratio of 0.280, hardly an All Star hitting performance.
On five out of 6 days during the week where one or more GE poll results were reported, Trump was a net loser. Including his win on the Friday GE polling results, he had an overall weekly loss (Minus Score) of 131 points. That’s an average deficit of 5.2 points per poll, which is a substantial burden for his stalwarts to overcome.
The public opinion Bad News continues to pile up around Trump. The polling status of the race as of Monday, October 17 suggests a string of sleepless nights ahead for Republican loyalists until the actual results on the evening of November 8th.