There has been far too much hyperventilating on the part of reporters and pundits about the run-away train inevitability of Donald Trump’s coronation.
As of this afternoon, March 2nd, the AP (Associated Press) reports that 695 delegates to the Republican Convention have been awarded to specific candidates running for the nomination.
There are a total of 2,472 delegates to be chosen before the convention. So, as of the latest count, only 28.1% of the delegates are locked in.
None were selected in January, despite all the media hoopla, multiple debate fireworks, and general angst.
There were four actual contests in February (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). Two of these four (Iowa and Nevada) were caucuses, and not primary elections where there was a real election like process for voters. Even so, during all of February, just 133 delegates were selected. This represents only 5.4% of all the Republican delegates to be chosen by July in Cleveland, Ohio. Given the media frenzy over the last 30 days, one might be pardoned for wondering if the election was all but over, when it had barely begun.
On Super Tuesday on March 1st, the stakes were higher indeed, but not cataclysmic. For the Republicans, there were contests in 11 states (9 primaries and caucuses in Alaska and Minnesota), A total of 562 additional delegates were reported chosen as of this afternoon (with 33 undermined). This large number represents 22.7% of the total delegates.
In sum, 28.1% of all delegates have been determined. What this means is that 72% have not been chosen. In other words, virtually 3/4 of all delegates are not committed. The Republican party and its voters have lots of choices left to make in the remaining 35 states, and no one has a stranglehold on what the end result will be.
Donald Trump holds a strong front-runner position after Super Tuesday. But facts is facts, and he currently has a total of 319 delegates. This after winning three of the first four contests, and seven more yesterday. He has won a grand total of 12.9% of all the delegates to the Convention. Further, he has amassed just 26% of the total (1,237 delegate votes) to win the nomination. So he is 75% short of the number needed to win. He has won less than 46% of the delegates selected so far.
Trump has ‘won’ 11 of the total of 15 (fully 73%) primary elections. But he has gathered less than half of the delegates from those same contests. This is the mis-direction magic of equating large and small states, as if they are equal in voting impact. The biggest prize of all the states so far, Texas with its 155 delegates, went for Cruz on Super Tuesday, by a convincing margin.
The nominee is not foreordained now. If the train eventually goes out of control, it will happen sometime after today, and be caused by events that have not yet occurred. Republican voters who have different ideas, the remaining candidates, and party officials need to stop wringing their hands, and get on with it.
It would also help if the media would apply a little less hype, and a little more fact based journalistic rigor to this highly entertaining, though ultimately very serious, exercise in democracy.